WK 13 · 2025OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET
Week 13 · 2025 season
The Board
Every game on the slate gets a win probability, a margin, and a total. Cyan rows cleared the 3-point bar against the opening total; those carry the only badge we sell. The rest of the board is the model showing its work.
64Games modeled
32Edges badged
32Passes
Matchups read Away @ Home. Open every game for the full model read: win probability, paired team ratings, and the grade once it goes final.
Tuesday, Nov 18
OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Akron @ Bowling Green7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 47.3 | 52.1 | +4.9OVER |
| Massachusetts @ Ohio7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.3 | 50.7 | -0.6 |
| Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 38.5 | 46.2 | +7.7OVER |
Wednesday, Nov 19
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Michigan @ Kent State7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 47.0 | 50.1 | +3.1OVER |
| Miami (OH) @ Buffalo7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 39.5 | 47.7 | +8.2OVER |
Thursday, Nov 20
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisiana @ Arkansas State7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 54.0 | 50.5 | -3.5UNDER |
Friday, Nov 21
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State @ NC State8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 61.5 | 52.0 | -9.5UNDER |
| Hawai'i @ UNLV10:30 PM ET · FINAL | 64.5 | 63.0 | -1.5 |
Saturday, Nov 22
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami @ Virginia Tech12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 49.0 | 53.1 | +4.1OVER |
| Minnesota @ Northwestern12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 41.0 | 45.4 | +4.4OVER |
| Samford @ Texas A&M12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 59.5 | 59.3 | -0.2 |
| Rutgers @ Ohio State12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 55.8 | 58.5 | +2.7 |
| Tulsa @ Army12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 46.5 | 50.6 | +4.1OVER |
| Missouri @ Oklahoma12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 48.5 | 49.1 | +0.6 |
| Kansas @ Iowa State12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 55.3 | 54.6 | -0.7 |
| Delaware @ Wake Forest12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.8 | 53.2 | +0.4 |
| Louisville @ SMU12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.3 | 48.6 | -4.7UNDER |
| Charlotte @ Georgia12:45 PM ET · FINAL | 54.8 | 54.4 | -0.3 |
| Washington State @ James Madison1:00 PM ET · FINAL | 43.0 | 46.7 | +3.7OVER |
| Baylor @ Arizona1:00 PM ET · FINAL | 62.8 | 58.3 | -4.5UNDER |
| Old Dominion @ Georgia Southern1:00 PM ET · FINAL | 62.8 | 58.2 | -4.5UNDER |
| Nevada @ Wyoming2:00 PM ET · FINAL | 41.5 | 45.1 | +3.6OVER |
| Ball State @ Toledo2:00 PM ET · FINAL | 47.8 | 49.6 | +1.9 |
| Eastern Illinois @ Alabama2:00 PM ET · FINAL | 57.3 | 57.1 | -0.1 |
| Mercer @ Auburn2:00 PM ET · FINAL | 50.5 | 53.1 | +2.6 |
| Missouri State @ Kennesaw State2:00 PM ET · FINAL | 58.5 | 52.8 | -5.7UNDER |
| Marshall @ App State2:30 PM ET · FINAL | 54.0 | 60.5 | +6.5OVER |
| UConn @ Florida Atlantic3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 67.5 | 63.7 | -3.8UNDER |
| South Florida @ UAB3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 69.3 | 63.1 | -6.1UNDER |
| New Mexico State @ UTEP3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 45.3 | 47.8 | +2.6 |
| Sam Houston @ Middle Tennessee3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.8 | 55.4 | +1.6 |
| Liberty @ Louisiana Tech3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 45.3 | 49.1 | +3.8OVER |
| USC @ Oregon3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 57.8 | 49.4 | -8.3UNDER |
| Duke @ North Carolina3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 51.8 | 50.1 | -1.6 |
| Kentucky @ Vanderbilt3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 53.0 | 51.9 | -1.1 |
| Michigan State @ Iowa3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 42.5 | 43.4 | +0.9 |
| Southern Miss @ South Alabama3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 56.0 | 53.2 | -2.8 |
| Arkansas @ Texas3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 56.5 | 52.7 | -3.8UNDER |
| East Carolina @ UTSA3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 61.8 | 56.4 | -5.3UNDER |
| Jacksonville State @ Florida International3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 56.0 | 57.2 | +1.2 |
| Syracuse @ Notre Dame3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 52.0 | +0.5 |
| Tulane @ Temple3:45 PM ET · FINAL | 54.8 | 54.0 | -0.7 |
| Michigan @ Maryland4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 45.5 | 53.1 | +7.6OVER |
| TCU @ Houston4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.8 | 58.0 | +3.3OVER |
| Oklahoma State @ UCF4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 48.0 | 50.7 | +2.7 |
| Kansas State @ Utah4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.5 | 52.2 | -1.3 |
| Georgia State @ Troy4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.3 | 55.7 | +4.5OVER |
| Coastal Carolina @ South Carolina4:15 PM ET · FINAL | 53.3 | 54.2 | +0.9 |
| Furman @ Clemson4:30 PM ET · FINAL | 55.0 | 58.6 | +3.6OVER |
| UL Monroe @ Texas State5:00 PM ET · FINAL | 55.8 | 59.0 | +3.3OVER |
| Nebraska @ Penn State7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 44.0 | 45.6 | +1.6 |
| Colorado State @ Boise State7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 45.5 | 50.8 | +5.3OVER |
| Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 61.8 | 57.0 | -4.8UNDER |
| New Mexico @ Air Force7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 58.3 | 53.4 | -4.9UNDER |
| Tennessee @ Florida7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 57.5 | 54.1 | -3.4UNDER |
| California @ Stanford7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 50.0 | 51.3 | +1.3 |
| Illinois @ Wisconsin7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 41.8 | 44.6 | +2.9 |
| North Texas @ Rice7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 55.0 | 56.2 | +1.2 |
| Western Kentucky @ LSU7:45 PM ET · FINAL | 51.0 | 51.1 | +0.1 |
| Arizona State @ Colorado8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 48.8 | 53.9 | +5.1OVER |
| BYU @ Cincinnati8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.8 | 53.6 | -0.2 |
| Utah State @ Fresno State10:30 PM ET · FINAL | 51.0 | 50.6 | -0.3 |
| Washington @ UCLA10:30 PM ET · FINAL | 52.0 | 54.2 | +2.2 |
| San José State @ San Diego State10:30 PM ET · FINAL | 49.5 | 50.5 | +1.1 |
Model totals vs the openers. The badge needs 3 points of daylight; win and spread numbers ride along unbadged.