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WK 13 · 2025FINALOPENER CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET

Week 13 · 2025 season

Louisville @ SMU

The UNDER 53.3 cashed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

SAT, NOV 22 · FINAL · GERALD J. FORD STADIUM
Louisville9-429%
SMU9-471%
LOUNATL RANKSMU
0.3no rank
Overall rating
no rank0.4
0.2no rank
Offense rating
no rank0.3
0.1no rank
Defense rating
no rank0.1
-3.5no rank
Pace
no rank-1.2
46%no rank
Returning PPA
no rank50%
#3333rd
Power rank
11th#11
#6868th
Recruiting rank
31st#31

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total53.3
Model total48.6
EDGE UNDER 53.3 · HIT

RATINGS AS OF: LOU wk 17 · SMU wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home)
+8.6
Open spread
-3.0
Close spread
-4.0
Close total
49.5

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

LOU6
FINALGerald J. Ford Stadium
SMU38
  • WinSMUWIN HIT
  • ATSSMUATS HIT
  • TotalsUNDER 49.5TOTAL HIT
  • EdgeUNDER 53.3EDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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