NU14.5%
SAT 12:00 AM ETAutzen Stadium
ORE85.5%
Somebody told Vegas this was a shootout.
Downfield Data
WK 9 · 2026NEXT KICK · OPENERS CAPTURED THU 11:03 AM ET
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Northwestern @ Oregon
SAT 12:00 AM ETTwo real defenses, one inflated total.
Northwestern14.5%
Oregon85.5%
UNDER 52.5 · EDGE
Arizona @ Texas Tech
SAT 12:00 PM ETTexas Tech -7.5. Edge.
Arizona27.0%
Texas Tech73.0%
TEXAS TECH -7.5 · EDGE
Florida @ Georgia
SAT 3:30 PM ETGeorgia -10.5. Edge.
Florida10.6%
Georgia89.4%
GEORGIA -10.5 · EDGE
Arizona State @ BYU
SAT 3:30 PM ETArizona State +16.5. Edge.
Arizona State7.4%
BYU92.6%
ARIZONA STATE +16.5 · EDGE
South Carolina @ Oklahoma
SAT 4:15 PM ETThe model wants points here.
South Carolina36.4%
Oklahoma63.6%
OVER 43.5 · EDGE
Kennesaw State @ Middle Tennessee
WED 7:00 PM ETThe math leans Middle Tennessee.
Kennesaw State35.6%
Middle Tennessee64.4%
Last Saturday, graded
WK 8 · 2026South Alabama @ Marshall
UNDER 64.75 · EDGEEDGE HIT
James Madison @ App State
APP STATE +11.75 · EDGEEDGE HIT
Liberty @ Kennesaw State
LIBERTY -8.5 · EDGEEDGE HIT
East Carolina @ Memphis
EAST CAROLINA +10.5 · EDGEEDGE HIT
Last Saturday's Edges, graded against their selected lines. The full slate lives on the report card.
Week 5Oct 2 · 7 min read
Week 5: Six Edges and a Test at Kinnick
Six model Edges, the case against each pick, and a closer look at Ohio State–Iowa. Georgia scoring trends and USC home totals put the numbers in context.
Week 2Sep 11 · 7 min read
Week 2’s Five Best Edges: The Model Is Hunting Totals
The board found five totals worth playing. Here’s the model case, the football mechanism and the strongest argument against each one.
The record so far.
EVERY SEASON · FROZEN SELECTIONSWin74.9%8,133 games
ATS lean55.6%9 decided
ATS Edge53.6%112 decided
Total lean60.0%5 decided
Total Edge56.7%120 decided
Leans and Edges use the exact lines published before kickoff. Every published pick is graded.
The full report card
2026 · UPDATED WEEKLYThe Thursday Board.
Every Thursday morning: the full edge board, every opener graded against the model, and the one number worth your weekend. Free, in your inbox before the lines move.