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WK 13 · 2025FINALOPENER CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET

Week 13 · 2025 season

Baylor @ Arizona

The UNDER 62.8 cashed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

SAT, NOV 22 · FINAL · ARIZONA STADIUM
Baylor5-754%
Arizona9-446%
BAYNATL RANKARIZ
0.2no rank
Overall rating
no rank0.3
0.2no rank
Offense rating
no rank0.2
-0.0no rank
Defense rating
no rank0.1
5.8no rank
Pace
no rank0.5
83%no rank
Returning PPA
no rank56%
#5353rd
Power rank
26th#26
#3636th
Recruiting rank
50th#50

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total62.8
Model total58.3
EDGE UNDER 62.8 · HIT

RATINGS AS OF: BAY wk 17 · ARIZ wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home)
+1.2
Open spread
-6.5
Close spread
-6.5
Close total
61.5

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

BAY17
FINALArizona Stadium
ARIZ41
  • WinBaylorWIN MISS
  • ATSBaylorATS MISS
  • TotalsUNDER 61.5TOTAL HIT
  • EdgeUNDER 62.8EDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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