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WK 13 · 2025FINALOPENER CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET

Week 13 · 2025 season

New Mexico @ Air Force

The UNDER 58.3 cashed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

SAT, NOV 22 · FINAL · FALCON STADIUM
New Mexico9-464%
Air Force4-836%
UNMNATL RANKAF
0.1no rank
Overall rating
no rank-0.1
0.1no rank
Offense rating
no rank0.1
0.0no rank
Defense rating
no rank-0.2
-6.7no rank
Pace
no rank-1.6
13%no rank
Returning PPA
no rank63%
#7272nd
Power rank
120th#120
#194194th
Recruiting rank
129th#129

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total58.3
Model total53.4
EDGE UNDER 58.3 · HIT

RATINGS AS OF: UNM wk 17 · AF wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home)
-4.2
Open spread
+2.0
Close spread
+3.5
Close total
53.5

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

UNM20
FINALFalcon Stadium
AF3
  • WinNew MexicoWIN HIT
  • ATSNew MexicoATS HIT
  • TotalsUNDER 53.5TOTAL HIT
  • EdgeUNDER 58.3EDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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