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WK 13 · 2025FINALOPENER CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET

Week 13 · 2025 season

South Florida @ UAB

The UNDER 69.3 cashed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

SAT, NOV 22 · FINAL · PROTECTIVE STADIUM
South Florida9-495%
UAB4-85%
USFNATL RANKUAB
0.3no rank
Overall rating
no rank-0.1
0.3no rank
Offense rating
no rank0.1
0.0no rank
Defense rating
no rank-0.2
1.5no rank
Pace
no rank0.0
100%no rank
Returning PPA
no rank73%
#1818th
Power rank
119th#119
#6565th
Recruiting rank
125th#125

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total69.3
Model total63.1
EDGE UNDER 69.3 · HIT

RATINGS AS OF: USF wk 17 · UAB wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home)
-21.6
Open spread
+21.5
Close spread
+21.5
Close total
68.5

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

USF48
FINALProtective Stadium
UAB18
  • WinSouth FloridaWIN HIT
  • ATSSouth FloridaATS HIT
  • TotalsUNDER 68.5TOTAL HIT
  • EdgeUNDER 69.3EDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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