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WK 13 · 2025FINALOPENER CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET

Week 13 · 2025 season

UConn @ Florida Atlantic

The UNDER 67.5 missed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

SAT, NOV 22 · FINAL · FAU STADIUM
UConn9-476%
Florida Atlantic4-824%
CONNNATL RANKFAU
0.1no rank
Overall rating
no rank0.1
0.2no rank
Offense rating
no rank0.2
-0.1no rank
Defense rating
no rank-0.1
-0.9no rank
Pace
no rank4.5
68%no rank
Returning PPA
no rank21%
#6363rd
Power rank
77th#77
#114114th
Recruiting rank
85th#85

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total67.5
Model total63.7
EDGE UNDER 67.5 · MISS

RATINGS AS OF: CONN wk 17 · FAU wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home)
-11.3
Open spread
+7.5
Close spread
+6.0
Close total
64.0

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

CONN48
FINALFAU Stadium
FAU45
  • WinUConnWIN HIT
  • ATSUConnATS MISS
  • TotalsUNDER 64.0TOTAL MISS
  • EdgeUNDER 67.5EDGE MISS
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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