Track record · 2017-2025
Every call, graded.
4 markets, 7,760 graded games. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick, and the table below is the whole record.
All-time record by market
Win, ATS, and totals track the model on every game with a closing line. The edge is the only badged pick: it fires when our total clears the opener by 3 or more points.
Totals edges · ROI by season · 2022-2025
Paid in 3 of 4 edge seasons
Return on a flat 1 unit stake per badged edge, each one graded against the closing total.
Every season, every market
win rates exclude pushes| Season | Games | Win | ATS | ATS CLV | Totals | Edge bets | Edge win | Edge ROI | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 874 | 73.2% | 50.8% | – | 48.6% | – | – | – | – |
| 2018 | 884 | 75.9% | 51.6% | – | 50.1% | – | – | – | – |
| 2019 | 888 | 78.7% | 51.8% | – | 50.7% | – | – | – | – |
| 2020 | 568 | 73.1% | 52.8% | – | 54.0% | – | – | – | – |
| 2021 | 887 | 73.5% | 49.4% | +0.4 | 53.5% | 463 | 56.2% | +7.3% | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 896 | 73.5% | 49.9% | +0.2 | 49.3% | 409 | 51.4% | -1.9% | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 910 | 75.7% | 52.6% | +0.7 | 52.6% | 357 | 55.0% | +4.9% | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 919 | 74.3% | 48.8% | +0.3 | 51.5% | 383 | 53.9% | +3.0% | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 934 | 75.4% | 48.7% | +0.8 | 52.4% | 346 | 55.2% | +5.4% | +0.6 |
| All time | 7,760 | 74.9% | 50.6% | +0.5 | 51.3% | 1,958 | 54.4% | +3.8% | +0.3 |
Dashed edge cells mark seasons before 2021: no opener on record, so there was no edge to flag.
How we grade
Graded vs the close
Win, ATS, and totals grade every game that has a closing line. The model's number stands against the final market number, every week. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.
The edge bar
An edge fires when our projected total clears the opening total by 3 or more points. It gets graded against the close like everything else.
Pushes sit out
A push counts for nobody. Win rates only include decided bets, and ROI assumes a flat 1 unit stake on every badged edge.
Openers since 2021
We started capturing opening totals in 2021. Earlier seasons still grade the other 3 markets, just with dashed edge columns.
Connor's Card
The human picks, same rulesThe first card posts with Week 1. Connor logs his own picks in the weekly Film Room post, and the record lands here: wins, losses, and units, graded against the listed number.
These are Connor's picks from the Film Room, graded by the same rules as the model markets and kept separate from the model's record above. Spread and total picks settle at -110; moneyline picks grade at even.