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WK 13 · 2025FINALOPENER CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET

Week 13 · 2025 season

Minnesota @ Northwestern

The OVER 41.0 cashed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

SAT, NOV 22 · FINAL · WRIGLEY FIELD · NEUTRAL SITE
Minnesota8-535%
Northwestern7-665%
MINNNATL RANKNU
0.1no rank
Overall rating
no rank0.1
0.1no rank
Offense rating
no rank0.1
-0.0no rank
Defense rating
no rank-0.0
-9.0no rank
Pace
no rank-3.6
44%no rank
Returning PPA
no rank68%
#8181st
Power rank
69th#69
#4949th
Recruiting rank
66th#66

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total41.0
Model total45.4
EDGE OVER 41.0 · HIT

RATINGS AS OF: MINN wk 17 · NU wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home)
+5.9
Open spread
-4.0
Close spread
-4.0
Close total
41.0

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

MINN35
FINALWrigley Field
NU38
  • WinNorthwesternWIN HIT
  • ATSNorthwesternATS MISS
  • TotalsOVER 41.0TOTAL HIT
  • EdgeOVER 41.0EDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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