WK 8 · 2025OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET
Week 8 · 2025 season
The Board
Every game on the slate gets a win probability, a margin, and a total. Cyan rows cleared the 3-point bar against the opening total; those carry the only badge we sell. The rest of the board is the model showing its work.
60Games modeled
24Edges badged
36Passes
Matchups read Away @ Home. Open every game for the full model read: win probability, paired team ratings, and the grade once it goes final.
Tuesday, Oct 14
OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico State @ Liberty7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 47.5 | 50.3 | +2.8 |
| Arkansas State @ South Alabama7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 59.5 | 59.9 | +0.4 |
| Florida International @ Western Kentucky8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.5 | 52.9 | -3.6UNDER |
Wednesday, Oct 15
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delaware @ Jacksonville State7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 57.5 | 57.5 | 0.0 |
| UTEP @ Sam Houston7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 47.5 | 51.3 | +3.8OVER |
Thursday, Oct 16
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tulsa @ East Carolina7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 53.5 | 54.1 | +0.6 |
Friday, Oct 17
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville @ Miami7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.0 | 53.0 | -1.0 |
| Nebraska @ Minnesota8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 47.8 | 47.9 | +0.1 |
| San José State @ Utah State9:00 PM ET · FINAL | 58.8 | 62.4 | +3.6OVER |
| North Carolina @ California10:30 PM ET · FINAL | 47.0 | 46.7 | -0.3 |
Saturday, Oct 18
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| LSU @ Vanderbilt12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 49.0 | 52.3 | +3.3OVER |
| Georgia Tech @ Duke12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 60.8 | 55.7 | -5.1UNDER |
| Arizona @ Houston12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 46.8 | 49.1 | +2.4 |
| Baylor @ TCU12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 66.5 | 63.1 | -3.4UNDER |
| Army @ Tulane12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 46.5 | 53.1 | +6.6OVER |
| Central Michigan @ Bowling Green12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 43.5 | 47.1 | +3.6OVER |
| Eastern Michigan @ Miami (OH)12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 48.0 | 49.3 | +1.3 |
| Washington @ Michigan12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 49.3 | 50.2 | +0.9 |
| UConn @ Boston College12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.0 | 55.2 | -0.8 |
| Oklahoma @ South Carolina12:45 PM ET · FINAL | 42.5 | 49.2 | +6.7OVER |
| West Virginia @ UCF1:00 PM ET · FINAL | 49.0 | 52.5 | +3.5OVER |
| Kent State @ Toledo2:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 53.9 | +1.4 |
| Buffalo @ Massachusetts2:30 PM ET · FINAL | 45.0 | 49.6 | +4.6OVER |
| Purdue @ Northwestern3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 48.5 | 50.6 | +2.1 |
| Troy @ UL Monroe3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 46.5 | 50.8 | +4.3OVER |
| Texas State @ Marshall3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 64.8 | 61.0 | -3.7UNDER |
| Wyoming @ Air Force3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 58.5 | 62.0 | +3.5OVER |
| SMU @ Clemson3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 54.8 | 51.9 | -2.8 |
| Michigan State @ Indiana3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 53.0 | 56.7 | +3.7OVER |
| Texas A&M @ Arkansas3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 61.8 | 60.7 | -1.1 |
| Old Dominion @ James Madison3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 47.5 | 46.2 | -1.3 |
| UNLV @ Boise State3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 63.0 | 57.5 | -5.5UNDER |
| Northern Illinois @ Ohio3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 43.5 | 46.7 | +3.2OVER |
| UTSA @ North Texas3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 67.5 | 64.9 | -2.6 |
| Temple @ Charlotte3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 47.0 | 52.5 | +5.5OVER |
| Ohio State @ Wisconsin3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 41.3 | 48.6 | +7.3OVER |
| Coastal Carolina @ App State3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 49.5 | 48.5 | -1.0 |
| Ole Miss @ Georgia3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 53.8 | 53.8 | 0.0 |
| Akron @ Ball State3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 43.5 | 49.8 | +6.3OVER |
| Texas Tech @ Arizona State4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 49.5 | 52.2 | +2.7 |
| Memphis @ UAB4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 64.5 | 55.1 | -9.4UNDER |
| Mississippi State @ Florida4:15 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 51.6 | -0.8 |
| Southern Miss @ Louisiana5:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.0 | 56.0 | +2.0 |
| Oregon @ Rutgers6:30 PM ET · FINAL | 58.8 | 58.7 | -0.0 |
| Washington State @ Virginia6:30 PM ET · FINAL | 57.0 | 58.9 | +1.9 |
| Georgia State @ Georgia Southern7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 57.8 | 57.4 | -0.4 |
| Texas @ Kentucky7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 43.5 | 51.1 | +7.6OVER |
| Penn State @ Iowa7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 42.0 | 42.5 | +0.5 |
| Maryland @ UCLA7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 54.2 | +1.7 |
| Hawai'i @ Colorado State7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.0 | 53.8 | -0.2 |
| USC @ Notre Dame7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 57.5 | 59.7 | +2.2 |
| Pittsburgh @ Syracuse7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 56.8 | 58.1 | +1.3 |
| Florida Atlantic @ South Florida7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 73.8 | 63.0 | -10.8UNDER |
| Tennessee @ Alabama7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 57.0 | 58.1 | +1.1 |
| Missouri @ Auburn7:45 PM ET · FINAL | 44.5 | 46.8 | +2.3 |
| Utah @ BYU8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 47.5 | 45.2 | -2.3 |
| Cincinnati @ Oklahoma State8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 57.8 | 53.4 | -4.3UNDER |
| Nevada @ New Mexico9:45 PM ET · FINAL | 48.5 | 48.7 | +0.2 |
| Lafayette @ Oregon State10:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 53.0 | -1.4 |
| Florida State @ Stanford10:30 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 57.3 | +2.8 |
Model totals vs the openers. The badge needs 3 points of daylight; win and spread numbers ride along unbadged.