Troy @ UL Monroe

The OVER 46.5 cashed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

SAT, OCT 18 · FINAL · MALONE STADIUM

Troy8-672%

UL Monroe3-928%

TROYNATL RANKULM

0.0no rank

Overall rating

no rank-0.1

0.0no rank

Offense rating

no rank-0.0

0.0no rank

Defense rating

no rank-0.1

-2.3no rank

Pace

no rank-9.1

33%no rank

Returning PPA

no rank78%

#9898th

Power rank

125th#125

#8282nd

Recruiting rank

115th#115

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total46.5

Model total50.8

EDGE OVER 46.5 · HIT

RATINGS AS OF: TROY wk 17 · ULM wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home): -5.9
Open spread: +5.5
Close spread: +4.5
Close total: 45.5

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

TROY37

FINALMalone Stadium

ULM14

WinTroyWIN HIT
ATSTroyATS HIT
TotalsOVER 45.5TOTAL HIT
EdgeOVER 46.5EDGE HIT

Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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