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WK 8 · 2025FINALOPENER CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET

Week 8 · 2025 season

Florida Atlantic @ South Florida

The UNDER 73.8 cashed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

SAT, OCT 18 · FINAL · RAYMOND JAMES STADIUM
Florida Atlantic4-84%
South Florida9-496%
FAUNATL RANKUSF
0.1no rank
Overall rating
no rank0.3
0.2no rank
Offense rating
no rank0.3
-0.1no rank
Defense rating
no rank0.0
4.5no rank
Pace
no rank1.5
21%no rank
Returning PPA
no rank100%
#7777th
Power rank
18th#18
#8585th
Recruiting rank
65th#65

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total73.8
Model total63.0
EDGE UNDER 73.8 · HIT

RATINGS AS OF: FAU wk 17 · USF wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home)
+17.3
Open spread
-22.5
Close spread
-20.5
Close total
72.5

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

FAU13
FINALRaymond James Stadium
USF48
  • WinSouth FloridaWIN HIT
  • ATSFlorida AtlanticATS MISS
  • TotalsUNDER 72.5TOTAL HIT
  • EdgeUNDER 73.8EDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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