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WK 8 · 2025FINALOPENER CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET

Week 8 · 2025 season

UNLV @ Boise State

The UNDER 63.0 missed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

SAT, OCT 18 · FINAL · ALBERTSONS STADIUM
UNLV10-418%
Boise State9-582%
UNLVNATL RANKBOIS
0.2no rank
Overall rating
no rank0.2
0.3no rank
Offense rating
no rank0.1
-0.1no rank
Defense rating
no rank0.0
-3.2no rank
Pace
no rank3.5
15%no rank
Returning PPA
no rank58%
#4242nd
Power rank
52nd#52
#9595th
Recruiting rank
62nd#62

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total63.0
Model total57.5
EDGE UNDER 63.0 · MISS

RATINGS AS OF: UNLV wk 17 · BOIS wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home)
+14.7
Open spread
-10.5
Close spread
-13.0
Close total
61.0

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

UNLV31
FINALAlbertsons Stadium
BOIS56
  • WinBoise StateWIN HIT
  • ATSBoise StateATS HIT
  • TotalsUNDER 61.0TOTAL MISS
  • EdgeUNDER 63.0EDGE MISS
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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