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WK 8 · 2025FINALOPENER CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET

Week 8 · 2025 season

West Virginia @ UCF

The OVER 49.0 cashed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

SAT, OCT 18 · FINAL · FBC MORTGAGE STADIUM
West Virginia4-823%
UCF5-777%
WVUNATL RANKUCF
0.1no rank
Overall rating
no rank0.1
0.1no rank
Offense rating
no rank0.1
0.0no rank
Defense rating
no rank0.0
2.5no rank
Pace
no rank-2.4
26%no rank
Returning PPA
no rank31%
#6666th
Power rank
78th#78
#4343rd
Recruiting rank
79th#79

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total49.0
Model total52.5
EDGE OVER 49.0 · HIT

RATINGS AS OF: WVU wk 17 · UCF wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home)
+8.0
Open spread
-7.5
Close spread
-6.5
Close total
46.5

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

WVU13
FINALFBC Mortgage Stadium
UCF45
  • WinUCFWIN HIT
  • ATSUCFATS HIT
  • TotalsOVER 46.5TOTAL HIT
  • EdgeOVER 49.0EDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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