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WK 8 · 2025FINALOPENER CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET

Week 8 · 2025 season

Memphis @ UAB

The UNDER 64.5 cashed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

SAT, OCT 18 · FINAL · PROTECTIVE STADIUM
Memphis8-579%
UAB4-821%
MEMNATL RANKUAB
0.1no rank
Overall rating
no rank-0.1
0.2no rank
Offense rating
no rank0.1
-0.1no rank
Defense rating
no rank-0.2
-0.4no rank
Pace
no rank0.0
12%no rank
Returning PPA
no rank73%
#6767th
Power rank
119th#119
#6060th
Recruiting rank
125th#125

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total64.5
Model total55.1
EDGE UNDER 64.5 · HIT

RATINGS AS OF: MEM wk 17 · UAB wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home)
-18.1
Open spread
+21.5
Close spread
+23.5
Close total
59.5

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

MEM24
FINALProtective Stadium
UAB31
  • WinMemphisWIN MISS
  • ATSUABATS HIT
  • TotalsUNDER 59.5TOTAL HIT
  • EdgeUNDER 64.5EDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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