The Board

Every game on the slate gets a win probability, a margin, and a total. Cyan rows cleared the 3-point bar against the opening total; those carry the only badge we sell. The rest of the board is the model showing its work.

64Games modeled

32Edges badged

32Passes

Matchups read Away @ Home. Open every game for the full model read: win probability, paired team ratings, and the grade once it goes final.

Tuesday, Nov 18

OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET

Tuesday, Nov 18 games: opening total, model total, and edge. Cyan-washed rows with a printed lean are badged totals edges.
Game	Open	Model	Edge
Akron @ Bowling Green7:00 PM ET · FINAL	47.3	52.1	+4.9OVER
Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois7:00 PM ET · FINAL	38.5	46.2	+7.7OVER

Wednesday, Nov 19

Wednesday, Nov 19 games: opening total, model total, and edge. Cyan-washed rows with a printed lean are badged totals edges.
Game	Open	Model	Edge
Central Michigan @ Kent State7:00 PM ET · FINAL	47.0	50.1	+3.1OVER
Miami (OH) @ Buffalo7:00 PM ET · FINAL	39.5	47.7	+8.2OVER

Thursday, Nov 20

Thursday, Nov 20 games: opening total, model total, and edge. Cyan-washed rows with a printed lean are badged totals edges.
Game	Open	Model	Edge
Louisiana @ Arkansas State7:30 PM ET · FINAL	54.0	50.5	-3.5UNDER

Friday, Nov 21

Friday, Nov 21 games: opening total, model total, and edge. Cyan-washed rows with a printed lean are badged totals edges.
Game	Open	Model	Edge
Florida State @ NC State8:00 PM ET · FINAL	61.5	52.0	-9.5UNDER

Saturday, Nov 22

Saturday, Nov 22 games: opening total, model total, and edge. Cyan-washed rows with a printed lean are badged totals edges.
Game	Open	Model	Edge
Miami @ Virginia Tech12:00 PM ET · FINAL	49.0	53.1	+4.1OVER
Minnesota @ Northwestern12:00 PM ET · FINAL	41.0	45.4	+4.4OVER
Tulsa @ Army12:00 PM ET · FINAL	46.5	50.6	+4.1OVER
Louisville @ SMU12:00 PM ET · FINAL	53.3	48.6	-4.7UNDER
Washington State @ James Madison1:00 PM ET · FINAL	43.0	46.7	+3.7OVER
Baylor @ Arizona1:00 PM ET · FINAL	62.8	58.3	-4.5UNDER
Old Dominion @ Georgia Southern1:00 PM ET · FINAL	62.8	58.2	-4.5UNDER
Nevada @ Wyoming2:00 PM ET · FINAL	41.5	45.1	+3.6OVER
Missouri State @ Kennesaw State2:00 PM ET · FINAL	58.5	52.8	-5.7UNDER
Marshall @ App State2:30 PM ET · FINAL	54.0	60.5	+6.5OVER
UConn @ Florida Atlantic3:00 PM ET · FINAL	67.5	63.7	-3.8UNDER
South Florida @ UAB3:00 PM ET · FINAL	69.3	63.1	-6.1UNDER
Liberty @ Louisiana Tech3:00 PM ET · FINAL	45.3	49.1	+3.8OVER
USC @ Oregon3:30 PM ET · FINAL	57.8	49.4	-8.3UNDER
Arkansas @ Texas3:30 PM ET · FINAL	56.5	52.7	-3.8UNDER
East Carolina @ UTSA3:30 PM ET · FINAL	61.8	56.4	-5.3UNDER
Michigan @ Maryland4:00 PM ET · FINAL	45.5	53.1	+7.6OVER
TCU @ Houston4:00 PM ET · FINAL	54.8	58.0	+3.3OVER
Georgia State @ Troy4:00 PM ET · FINAL	51.3	55.7	+4.5OVER
Furman @ Clemson4:30 PM ET · FINAL	55.0	58.6	+3.6OVER
UL Monroe @ Texas State5:00 PM ET · FINAL	55.8	59.0	+3.3OVER
Colorado State @ Boise State7:00 PM ET · FINAL	45.5	50.8	+5.3OVER
Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech7:00 PM ET · FINAL	61.8	57.0	-4.8UNDER
New Mexico @ Air Force7:00 PM ET · FINAL	58.3	53.4	-4.9UNDER
Tennessee @ Florida7:30 PM ET · FINAL	57.5	54.1	-3.4UNDER
Arizona State @ Colorado8:00 PM ET · FINAL	48.8	53.9	+5.1OVER

Model totals vs the openers. The badge needs 3 points of daylight; win and spread numbers ride along unbadged.