WK 2 · 2025OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET
Week 2 · 2025 season
The Board
Every game on the slate gets a win probability, a margin, and a total. Cyan rows cleared the 3-point bar against the opening total; those carry the only badge we sell. The rest of the board is the model showing its work.
83Games modeled
29Edges badged
54Passes
Matchups read Away @ Home. Open every game for the full model read: win probability, paired team ratings, and the grade once it goes final.
Friday, Sep 5
OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison @ Louisville7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 57.5 | 56.0 | -1.5 |
| Western Illinois @ Northwestern7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 51.4 | -0.1 |
| Northern Illinois @ Maryland7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 48.5 | 51.9 | +3.4OVER |
| Eastern Washington @ Boise State9:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.0 | 55.3 | -0.7 |
Saturday, Sep 6
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor @ SMU12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 62.8 | 55.3 | -7.4UNDER |
| Northwestern State @ Minnesota12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 50.5 | 52.2 | +1.7 |
| Kennesaw State @ Indiana12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 50.8 | 49.7 | -1.1 |
| Illinois @ Duke12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 49.8 | 49.7 | -0.0 |
| San José State @ Texas12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.3 | 50.0 | -1.2 |
| Florida International @ Penn State12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 54.7 | +0.2 |
| Central Michigan @ Pittsburgh12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.3 | 50.2 | -3.1UNDER |
| UConn @ Syracuse12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 59.3 | 61.5 | +2.3 |
| Iowa @ Iowa State12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 43.8 | 46.3 | +2.6 |
| Kent State @ Texas Tech12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 60.5 | 59.3 | -1.2 |
| Virginia @ NC State12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 55.0 | 54.8 | -0.2 |
| East Texas A&M @ Florida State12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 57.5 | 53.3 | -4.2UNDER |
| Liberty @ Jacksonville State12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.8 | 50.8 | -0.9 |
| Utah State @ Texas A&M12:45 PM ET · FINAL | 56.0 | 57.8 | +1.8 |
| Howard @ Temple2:00 PM ET · FINAL | 46.5 | 50.9 | +4.4OVER |
| Western Carolina @ Wake Forest2:00 PM ET · FINAL | 61.5 | 56.5 | -5.0UNDER |
| Idaho State @ New Mexico3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 63.5 | 61.6 | -1.9 |
| Delaware @ Colorado3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 50.3 | 51.2 | +0.9 |
| Gardner-Webb @ Georgia Tech3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 58.5 | 56.6 | -1.9 |
| Oklahoma State @ Oregon3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 58.5 | 60.4 | +1.9 |
| Troy @ Clemson3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 49.5 | -1.9 |
| Grambling @ Ohio State3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 62.5 | 58.9 | -3.6UNDER |
| Miami (OH) @ Rutgers3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 48.3 | 48.8 | +0.6 |
| East Tennessee State @ Tennessee3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 56.5 | 59.0 | +2.5 |
| Texas State @ UTSA3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 65.5 | 64.6 | -0.9 |
| Fresno State @ Oregon State3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 48.5 | 48.8 | +0.3 |
| Bryant @ Massachusetts3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 59.4 | +6.9OVER |
| North Texas @ Western Michigan3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 60.3 | 53.6 | -6.7UNDER |
| UAB @ Navy3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 59.0 | 54.4 | -4.6UNDER |
| Ole Miss @ Kentucky3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 52.0 | 48.5 | -3.5UNDER |
| Kansas @ Missouri3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 53.0 | 54.3 | +1.3 |
| Bowling Green @ Cincinnati3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 48.0 | 51.6 | +3.6OVER |
| Austin Peay @ Georgia3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 55.5 | 58.2 | +2.7 |
| Lindenwood @ App State3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 52.8 | 55.3 | +2.6 |
| St. Francis (PA) @ Buffalo3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 49.5 | 49.7 | +0.2 |
| Northern Iowa @ Wyoming4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 47.5 | 46.1 | -1.4 |
| Middle Tennessee @ Wisconsin4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 46.5 | 52.8 | +6.3OVER |
| West Virginia @ Ohio4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 59.0 | 56.2 | -2.8 |
| South Florida @ Florida4:15 PM ET · FINAL | 54.8 | 53.6 | -1.1 |
| Sacramento State @ Nevada5:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 55.5 | +1.0 |
| Jackson State @ Southern Miss5:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 55.1 | +2.6 |
| Arkansas State @ Arkansas5:00 PM ET · FINAL | 64.0 | 57.1 | -6.8UNDER |
| Florida A&M @ Florida Atlantic6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 46.0 | 49.1 | +3.1OVER |
| Missouri State @ Marshall6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.5 | 56.1 | -0.3 |
| North Carolina Central @ Old Dominion6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 50.5 | 52.1 | +1.6 |
| Texas Southern @ California6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.8 | 57.3 | +3.5OVER |
| Cal Poly @ Utah6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.8 | 54.8 | +3.0OVER |
| Campbell @ East Carolina6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 57.5 | +5.0OVER |
| Western Kentucky @ Toledo7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 59.0 | 53.8 | -5.3UNDER |
| Bethune-Cookman @ Miami7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 64.5 | 62.7 | -1.8 |
| Memphis @ Georgia State7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.3 | 58.4 | +4.1OVER |
| Northern Colorado @ Colorado State7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 56.0 | +3.5OVER |
| North Carolina @ Charlotte7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 48.5 | 52.9 | +4.3OVER |
| Army @ Kansas State7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 47.8 | 50.1 | +2.4 |
| Tulane @ South Alabama7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 49.4 | -2.1 |
| South Carolina State @ South Carolina7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 58.0 | +5.5OVER |
| Long Island University @ Eastern Michigan7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 53.0 | -1.5 |
| Houston @ Rice7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 41.0 | 48.5 | +7.5OVER |
| North Carolina A&T @ UCF7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 50.5 | 52.4 | +1.9 |
| Charleston Southern @ Coastal Carolina7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 49.5 | 50.8 | +1.3 |
| Arizona State @ Mississippi State7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 59.3 | 56.8 | -2.5 |
| Ball State @ Auburn7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 55.0 | 54.7 | -0.3 |
| Louisiana Tech @ LSU7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 48.0 | -4.5UNDER |
| Akron @ Nebraska7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 47.8 | 50.0 | +2.2 |
| Southern Illinois @ Purdue7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 50.8 | -0.7 |
| Boston College @ Michigan State7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 48.0 | 49.8 | +1.8 |
| Georgia Southern @ USC7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 64.3 | 57.6 | -6.6UNDER |
| Vanderbilt @ Virginia Tech7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 47.5 | 47.3 | -0.2 |
| Michigan @ Oklahoma7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 47.5 | 48.0 | +0.5 |
| UL Monroe @ Alabama7:45 PM ET · FINAL | 50.8 | 48.0 | -2.8 |
| UCLA @ UNLV8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.0 | 51.2 | -4.8UNDER |
| McNeese @ Louisiana8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.0 | 52.0 | -0.0 |
| Tulsa @ New Mexico State9:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.0 | 57.1 | +4.1OVER |
| UT Martin @ UTEP9:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 49.6 | -1.9 |
| Weber State @ Arizona10:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.5 | 55.8 | -0.7 |
| Stanford @ BYU10:15 PM ET · FINAL | 47.8 | 51.2 | +3.4OVER |
| San Diego State @ Washington State10:15 PM ET · FINAL | 45.3 | 47.7 | +2.4 |
| UC Davis @ Washington11:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.5 | 55.0 | +1.5 |
| Sam Houston @ Hawai'i11:59 PM ET · FINAL | 49.3 | 50.8 | +1.6 |
Model totals vs the openers. The badge needs 3 points of daylight; win and spread numbers ride along unbadged.