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WK 2 · 2025FINALOPENER CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET

Week 2 · 2025 season

Ole Miss @ Kentucky

The UNDER 52.0 missed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

SAT, SEP 6 · FINAL · KROGER FIELD
Ole Miss13-285%
Kentucky5-715%
MISSNATL RANKUK
0.5no rank
Overall rating
no rank0.1
0.4no rank
Offense rating
no rank0.1
0.1no rank
Defense rating
no rank0.0
5.1no rank
Pace
no rank-2.9
18%no rank
Returning PPA
no rank27%
#77th
Power rank
62nd#62
#1616th
Recruiting rank
29th#29

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total52.0
Model total48.5
EDGE UNDER 52.0 · MISS

RATINGS AS OF: MISS wk 17 · UK wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home)
-15.7
Open spread
+9.0
Close spread
+7.8
Close total
51.5

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

MISS30
FINALKroger Field
UK23
  • WinOle MissWIN HIT
  • ATSOle MissATS MISS
  • TotalsUNDER 51.5TOTAL MISS
  • EdgeUNDER 52.0EDGE MISS
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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