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WK 2 · 2025FINALOPENER CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET

Week 2 · 2025 season

Bowling Green @ Cincinnati

The OVER 48.0 cashed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

SAT, SEP 6 · FINAL · NIPPERT STADIUM
Bowling Green4-810%
Cincinnati7-690%
BGSUNATL RANKCIN
-0.2no rank
Overall rating
no rank0.2
-0.1no rank
Offense rating
no rank0.3
-0.1no rank
Defense rating
no rank-0.1
-4.0no rank
Pace
no rank-7.1
8%no rank
Returning PPA
no rank79%
#134134th
Power rank
37th#37
#9494th
Recruiting rank
61st#61

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total48.0
Model total51.6
EDGE OVER 48.0 · HIT

RATINGS AS OF: BGSU wk 17 · CIN wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home)
+23.4
Open spread
-19.3
Close spread
-22.0
Close total
46.5

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

BGSU20
FINALNippert Stadium
CIN34
  • WinCincinnatiWIN HIT
  • ATSCincinnatiATS MISS
  • TotalsOVER 46.5TOTAL HIT
  • EdgeOVER 48.0EDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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