UCLA @ UNLV

The UNDER 56.0 cashed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

SAT, SEP 6 · FINAL · ALLEGIANT STADIUM

UCLA3-956%

UNLV10-444%

UCLANATL RANKUNLV

0.1no rank

Overall rating

no rank0.2

0.1no rank

Offense rating

no rank0.3

-0.0no rank

Defense rating

no rank-0.1

-6.7no rank

Pace

no rank-3.2

22%no rank

Returning PPA

no rank15%

#7373rd

Power rank

42nd#42

#4646th

Recruiting rank

95th#95

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total56.0

Model total51.2

EDGE UNDER 56.0 · HIT

RATINGS AS OF: UCLA wk 17 · UNLV wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home): -1.7
Open spread: +2.3
Close spread: +2.5
Close total: 54.5

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

UCLA23

FINALAllegiant Stadium

UNLV30

WinUCLAWIN MISS
ATSUNLVATS HIT
TotalsUNDER 54.5TOTAL HIT
EdgeUNDER 56.0EDGE HIT

Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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