WK 9 · 2025OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET
Week 9 · 2025 season
The Board
Every game on the slate gets a win probability, a margin, and a total. Cyan rows cleared the 3-point bar against the opening total; those carry the only badge we sell. The rest of the board is the model showing its work.
53Games modeled
24Edges badged
29Passes
Matchups read Away @ Home. Open every game for the full model read: win probability, paired team ratings, and the grade once it goes final.
Tuesday, Oct 21
OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kennesaw State @ Florida International7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 48.5 | 55.3 | +6.8OVER |
| Western Kentucky @ Louisiana Tech7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 50.3 | 53.2 | +3.0 |
Wednesday, Oct 22
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Tennessee @ Delaware7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 53.8 | 53.4 | -0.4 |
| Missouri State @ New Mexico State9:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.3 | 51.3 | -0.9 |
Thursday, Oct 23
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Alabama @ Georgia State7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 54.5 | 0.0 |
Friday, Oct 24
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Texas @ Charlotte7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 58.8 | 60.8 | +2.0 |
| California @ Virginia Tech7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 49.5 | 51.4 | +1.9 |
| Boise State @ Nevada10:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.0 | 52.4 | +0.4 |
Saturday, Oct 25
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia @ North Carolina12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.3 | 48.9 | -3.3UNDER |
| Ole Miss @ Oklahoma12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.0 | 51.5 | +0.5 |
| SMU @ Wake Forest12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 55.0 | 51.1 | -3.9UNDER |
| UCLA @ Indiana12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 53.7 | -0.8 |
| South Florida @ Memphis12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 67.0 | 61.3 | -5.7UNDER |
| Kansas State @ Kansas12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.3 | 55.1 | +0.8 |
| Northwestern @ Nebraska12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 43.8 | 47.9 | +4.2OVER |
| Syracuse @ Georgia Tech12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.8 | 56.0 | +1.2 |
| Rutgers @ Purdue12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 58.5 | 55.8 | -2.8 |
| Bowling Green @ Kent State12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 50.8 | 47.1 | -3.7UNDER |
| App State @ Old Dominion12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 60.3 | 55.9 | -4.4UNDER |
| Ohio @ Eastern Michigan12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 59.3 | 56.3 | -3.0 |
| Auburn @ Arkansas12:45 PM ET · FINAL | 57.0 | 58.0 | +1.0 |
| Akron @ Buffalo1:00 PM ET · FINAL | 47.5 | 49.8 | +2.3 |
| UConn @ Rice3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 48.5 | 52.3 | +3.8OVER |
| Utah State @ New Mexico3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 62.5 | 57.2 | -5.3UNDER |
| San Diego State @ Fresno State3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 48.5 | 53.7 | +5.2OVER |
| Florida Atlantic @ Navy3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 62.8 | 56.6 | -6.1UNDER |
| Temple @ Tulsa3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 53.5 | 57.2 | +3.7OVER |
| Western Michigan @ Miami (OH)3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 41.5 | 48.6 | +7.1OVER |
| Massachusetts @ Central Michigan3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 46.8 | 49.5 | +2.8 |
| NC State @ Pittsburgh3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 57.0 | 52.2 | -4.8UNDER |
| Minnesota @ Iowa3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 38.5 | 42.7 | +4.2OVER |
| UL Monroe @ Southern Miss3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 49.5 | 48.7 | -0.8 |
| Illinois @ Washington3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 56.0 | 52.5 | -3.5UNDER |
| Alabama @ South Carolina3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 46.8 | 51.5 | +4.7OVER |
| Toledo @ Washington State3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 50.8 | 49.8 | -0.9 |
| BYU @ Iowa State3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 48.8 | 50.4 | +1.6 |
| Missouri @ Vanderbilt3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 54.6 | +2.1 |
| Ball State @ Northern Illinois3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 41.5 | 48.6 | +7.1OVER |
| Baylor @ Cincinnati4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 66.5 | 62.4 | -4.1UNDER |
| Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.8 | 59.0 | +2.3 |
| Texas @ Mississippi State4:15 PM ET · FINAL | 45.8 | 47.0 | +1.2 |
| TCU @ West Virginia6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.3 | 57.2 | +1.0 |
| Stanford @ Miami7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 48.5 | 54.2 | +5.7OVER |
| Georgia Southern @ Arkansas State7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 62.5 | 55.4 | -7.1UNDER |
| Wisconsin @ Oregon7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 44.8 | 47.6 | +2.9 |
| Louisiana @ Troy7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 50.8 | 48.6 | -2.2 |
| Boston College @ Louisville7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 55.5 | 55.1 | -0.4 |
| Texas A&M @ LSU7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 51.0 | 48.0 | -3.0 |
| Colorado State @ Wyoming7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 46.0 | 50.3 | +4.3OVER |
| Michigan @ Michigan State7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 47.8 | 51.2 | +3.5OVER |
| Tennessee @ Kentucky7:45 PM ET · FINAL | 53.0 | 55.2 | +2.2 |
| Houston @ Arizona State8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 47.5 | 52.1 | +4.6OVER |
| Colorado @ Utah10:15 PM ET · FINAL | 53.3 | 51.1 | -2.2 |
Model totals vs the openers. The badge needs 3 points of daylight; win and spread numbers ride along unbadged.