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WK 9 · 2025FINALOPENER CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET

Week 9 · 2025 season

Utah State @ New Mexico

The UNDER 62.5 cashed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

SAT, OCT 25 · FINAL · UNIVERSITY STADIUM (NM)
Utah State6-761%
New Mexico9-439%
USUNATL RANKUNM
0.1no rank
Overall rating
no rank0.1
0.2no rank
Offense rating
no rank0.1
-0.0no rank
Defense rating
no rank0.0
-0.2no rank
Pace
no rank-6.7
63%no rank
Returning PPA
no rank13%
#6868th
Power rank
72nd#72
#8787th
Recruiting rank
194th#194

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total62.5
Model total57.2
EDGE UNDER 62.5 · HIT

RATINGS AS OF: USU wk 17 · UNM wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home)
+0.3
Open spread
-1.5
Close spread
-3.0
Close total
61.0

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

USU14
FINALUniversity Stadium (NM)
UNM33
  • WinUtah StateWIN MISS
  • ATSUtah StateATS MISS
  • TotalsUNDER 61.0TOTAL HIT
  • EdgeUNDER 62.5EDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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