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WK 9 · 2025FINALOPENER CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET

Week 9 · 2025 season

Baylor @ Cincinnati

The UNDER 66.5 cashed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

SAT, OCT 25 · FINAL · NIPPERT STADIUM
Baylor5-735%
Cincinnati7-665%
BAYNATL RANKCIN
0.2no rank
Overall rating
no rank0.2
0.2no rank
Offense rating
no rank0.3
-0.0no rank
Defense rating
no rank-0.1
5.8no rank
Pace
no rank-7.1
83%no rank
Returning PPA
no rank79%
#5353rd
Power rank
37th#37
#3636th
Recruiting rank
61st#61

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total66.5
Model total62.4
EDGE UNDER 66.5 · HIT

RATINGS AS OF: BAY wk 17 · CIN wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home)
+9.3
Open spread
-5.5
Close spread
-3.5
Close total
68.5

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

BAY20
FINALNippert Stadium
CIN41
  • WinCincinnatiWIN HIT
  • ATSCincinnatiATS HIT
  • TotalsUNDER 68.5TOTAL HIT
  • EdgeUNDER 66.5EDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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