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WK 9 · 2025FINALOPENER CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET

Week 9 · 2025 season

SMU @ Wake Forest

The UNDER 55.0 cashed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

SAT, OCT 25 · FINAL · ALLEGACY FEDERAL CREDIT UNION STADIUM
SMU9-473%
Wake Forest9-427%
SMUNATL RANKWAKE
0.4no rank
Overall rating
no rank0.2
0.3no rank
Offense rating
no rank0.2
0.1no rank
Defense rating
no rank0.1
-1.2no rank
Pace
no rank-1.9
50%no rank
Returning PPA
no rank26%
#1111th
Power rank
46th#46
#3131st
Recruiting rank
63rd#63

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total55.0
Model total51.1
EDGE UNDER 55.0 · HIT

RATINGS AS OF: SMU wk 17 · WAKE wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home)
-2.2
Open spread
+3.5
Close spread
+5.5
Close total
52.5

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

SMU12
FINALAllegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
WAKE13
  • WinSMUWIN MISS
  • ATSWake ForestATS HIT
  • TotalsUNDER 52.5TOTAL HIT
  • EdgeUNDER 55.0EDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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