Georgia Southern @ Arkansas State

The UNDER 62.5 cashed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

SAT, OCT 25 · FINAL · CENTENNIAL BANK STADIUM

Georgia Southern7-661%

Arkansas State7-639%

GASONATL RANKARST

0.0no rank

Overall rating

no rank-0.1

0.2no rank

Offense rating

no rank-0.0

-0.1no rank

Defense rating

no rank-0.1

1.1no rank

Pace

no rank6.4

92%no rank

Returning PPA

no rank59%

#102102nd

Power rank

114th#114

#8080th

Recruiting rank

75th#75

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total62.5

Model total55.4

EDGE UNDER 62.5 · HIT

RATINGS AS OF: GASO wk 17 · ARST wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home): -3.5
Open spread: -2.5
Close spread: +1.0
Close total: 59.5

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

GASO24

FINALCentennial Bank Stadium

ARST34

WinGeorgia SouthernWIN MISS
ATSGeorgia SouthernATS MISS
TotalsUNDER 59.5TOTAL HIT
EdgeUNDER 62.5EDGE HIT

Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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