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WK 9 · 2025FINALOPENER CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET

Week 9 · 2025 season

Alabama @ South Carolina

The OVER 46.8 cashed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

SAT, OCT 25 · FINAL · WILLIAMS-BRICE STADIUM
Alabama11-477%
South Carolina4-823%
ALANATL RANKSC
0.4no rank
Overall rating
no rank0.3
0.2no rank
Offense rating
no rank0.2
0.2no rank
Defense rating
no rank0.1
-3.0no rank
Pace
no rank-4.0
43%no rank
Returning PPA
no rank63%
#1414th
Power rank
22nd#22
#33rd
Recruiting rank
18th#18

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total46.8
Model total51.5
EDGE OVER 46.8 · HIT

RATINGS AS OF: ALA wk 17 · SC wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home)
-13.4
Open spread
+13.0
Close spread
+11.5
Close total
47.5

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

ALA29
FINALWilliams-Brice Stadium
SC22
  • WinAlabamaWIN HIT
  • ATSAlabamaATS MISS
  • TotalsOVER 47.5TOTAL HIT
  • EdgeOVER 46.8EDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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