Downfield DataGet the board
WK 9 · 2025OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET

Week 9 · 2025 season

The Board

Every game on the slate gets a win probability, a margin, and a total. Cyan rows cleared the 3-point bar against the opening total; those carry the only badge we sell. The rest of the board is the model showing its work.

53Games modeled
24Edges badged
29Passes

Matchups read Away @ Home. Open every game for the full model read: win probability, paired team ratings, and the grade once it goes final.

Tuesday, Oct 21

OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET
Tuesday, Oct 21 games: opening total, model total, and edge. Cyan-washed rows with a printed lean are badged totals edges.
GameOpenModelEdge
Kennesaw State @ Florida International7:00 PM ET · FINAL48.555.3+6.8OVER

Saturday, Oct 25

Saturday, Oct 25 games: opening total, model total, and edge. Cyan-washed rows with a printed lean are badged totals edges.
GameOpenModelEdge
Virginia @ North Carolina12:00 PM ET · FINAL52.348.9-3.3UNDER
SMU @ Wake Forest12:00 PM ET · FINAL55.051.1-3.9UNDER
South Florida @ Memphis12:00 PM ET · FINAL67.061.3-5.7UNDER
Northwestern @ Nebraska12:00 PM ET · FINAL43.847.9+4.2OVER
Bowling Green @ Kent State12:00 PM ET · FINAL50.847.1-3.7UNDER
App State @ Old Dominion12:00 PM ET · FINAL60.355.9-4.4UNDER
UConn @ Rice3:00 PM ET · FINAL48.552.3+3.8OVER
Utah State @ New Mexico3:00 PM ET · FINAL62.557.2-5.3UNDER
San Diego State @ Fresno State3:30 PM ET · FINAL48.553.7+5.2OVER
Florida Atlantic @ Navy3:30 PM ET · FINAL62.856.6-6.1UNDER
Temple @ Tulsa3:30 PM ET · FINAL53.557.2+3.7OVER
Western Michigan @ Miami (OH)3:30 PM ET · FINAL41.548.6+7.1OVER
NC State @ Pittsburgh3:30 PM ET · FINAL57.052.2-4.8UNDER
Minnesota @ Iowa3:30 PM ET · FINAL38.542.7+4.2OVER
Illinois @ Washington3:30 PM ET · FINAL56.052.5-3.5UNDER
Alabama @ South Carolina3:30 PM ET · FINAL46.851.5+4.7OVER
Ball State @ Northern Illinois3:30 PM ET · FINAL41.548.6+7.1OVER
Baylor @ Cincinnati4:00 PM ET · FINAL66.562.4-4.1UNDER
Stanford @ Miami7:00 PM ET · FINAL48.554.2+5.7OVER
Georgia Southern @ Arkansas State7:00 PM ET · FINAL62.555.4-7.1UNDER
Colorado State @ Wyoming7:30 PM ET · FINAL46.050.3+4.3OVER
Michigan @ Michigan State7:30 PM ET · FINAL47.851.2+3.5OVER
Houston @ Arizona State8:00 PM ET · FINAL47.552.1+4.6OVER

Model totals vs the openers. The badge needs 3 points of daylight; win and spread numbers ride along unbadged.