WK 7 · 2025OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET
Week 7 · 2025 season
The Board
Every game on the slate gets a win probability, a margin, and a total. Cyan rows cleared the 3-point bar against the opening total; those carry the only badge we sell. The rest of the board is the model showing its work.
56Games modeled
21Edges badged
35Passes
Matchups read Away @ Home. Open every game for the full model read: win probability, paired team ratings, and the grade once it goes final.
Wednesday, Oct 8
OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri State @ Middle Tennessee7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 52.0 | 51.9 | -0.1 |
| Liberty @ UTEP8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 46.8 | 49.4 | +2.7 |
Thursday, Oct 9
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Tech @ Kennesaw State7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 45.5 | 46.6 | +1.1 |
| East Carolina @ Tulane7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 54.0 | 49.7 | -4.3UNDER |
| Southern Miss @ Georgia Southern8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 60.0 | 56.5 | -3.5UNDER |
| Jacksonville State @ Sam Houston8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 55.5 | 56.5 | +1.0 |
Friday, Oct 10
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida @ North Texas7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 66.0 | 61.3 | -4.7UNDER |
| Fresno State @ Colorado State9:00 PM ET · FINAL | 45.5 | 47.5 | +2.0 |
| Rutgers @ Washington9:00 PM ET · FINAL | 59.0 | 62.6 | +3.6OVER |
Saturday, Oct 11
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State @ Illinois12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 50.5 | 50.3 | -0.2 |
| Charlotte @ Army12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 47.0 | 50.2 | +3.2OVER |
| Stanford @ SMU12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.5 | 52.8 | -3.7UNDER |
| Alabama @ Missouri12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.5 | 58.2 | +4.7OVER |
| UCLA @ Michigan State12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 55.5 | 51.1 | -4.4UNDER |
| Toledo @ Bowling Green12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 49.5 | 50.7 | +1.2 |
| Miami (OH) @ Akron12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 45.5 | 46.7 | +1.2 |
| UCF @ Cincinnati12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.0 | 53.9 | -2.1 |
| Houston @ Oklahoma State12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 47.0 | 49.4 | +2.4 |
| Louisiana @ James Madison12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 46.5 | 49.7 | +3.2OVER |
| Pittsburgh @ Florida State12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 58.3 | 61.1 | +2.9 |
| Washington State @ Ole Miss12:45 PM ET · FINAL | 59.3 | 58.0 | -1.2 |
| Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan1:00 PM ET · FINAL | 49.0 | 48.9 | -0.1 |
| Massachusetts @ Kent State2:30 PM ET · FINAL | 48.8 | 52.0 | +3.3OVER |
| NC State @ Notre Dame3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 62.5 | 58.9 | -3.6UNDER |
| Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 55.5 | 56.9 | +1.4 |
| Iowa State @ Colorado3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 55.0 | +2.5 |
| Oklahoma @ Texas3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 49.5 | 47.0 | -2.5 |
| Ball State @ Western Michigan3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 43.3 | 48.0 | +4.8OVER |
| Northwestern @ Penn State3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 48.5 | 47.1 | -1.4 |
| Nebraska @ Maryland3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 47.8 | 48.3 | +0.6 |
| TCU @ Kansas State3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 57.5 | 55.3 | -2.2 |
| Old Dominion @ Marshall3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 55.3 | 54.7 | -0.5 |
| App State @ Georgia State3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 55.8 | 56.1 | +0.3 |
| Air Force @ UNLV3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 68.5 | 61.5 | -7.0UNDER |
| Wake Forest @ Oregon State3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 55.7 | +3.2OVER |
| Indiana @ Oregon3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 55.0 | 59.2 | +4.2OVER |
| Navy @ Temple4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.0 | 53.8 | +0.8 |
| Arkansas @ Tennessee4:15 PM ET · FINAL | 69.5 | 64.0 | -5.5UNDER |
| UAB @ Florida Atlantic6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 69.5 | 63.6 | -5.9UNDER |
| Florida @ Texas A&M7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 46.3 | 48.9 | +2.7 |
| San José State @ Wyoming7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 49.5 | 50.8 | +1.3 |
| UL Monroe @ Coastal Carolina7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 44.0 | 46.5 | +2.5 |
| Iowa @ Wisconsin7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 37.5 | 46.4 | +8.8OVER |
| Kansas @ Texas Tech7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 60.5 | 57.7 | -2.8 |
| Purdue @ Minnesota7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 52.0 | 51.0 | -1.0 |
| Clemson @ Boston College7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 54.3 | -0.2 |
| Georgia @ Auburn7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 48.5 | 51.1 | +2.6 |
| Rice @ UTSA7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 49.5 | 49.7 | +0.2 |
| Michigan @ USC7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 56.0 | 59.4 | +3.4OVER |
| South Carolina @ LSU7:45 PM ET · FINAL | 44.5 | 43.9 | -0.6 |
| BYU @ Arizona8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 48.0 | 48.6 | +0.6 |
| Troy @ Texas State8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.0 | 55.7 | +1.7 |
| New Mexico @ Boise State9:45 PM ET · FINAL | 60.0 | 52.3 | -7.7UNDER |
| Arizona State @ Utah10:15 PM ET · FINAL | 49.0 | 51.5 | +2.5 |
| San Diego State @ Nevada10:30 PM ET · FINAL | 42.0 | 46.7 | +4.7OVER |
| Utah State @ Hawai'i11:59 PM ET · FINAL | 58.5 | 58.1 | -0.4 |
Model totals vs the openers. The badge needs 3 points of daylight; win and spread numbers ride along unbadged.