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WK 7 · 2025FINALOPENER CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET

Week 7 · 2025 season

Arkansas @ Tennessee

The UNDER 69.5 cashed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

SAT, OCT 11 · FINAL · NEYLAND STADIUM
Arkansas2-1022%
Tennessee8-578%
ARKNATL RANKTENN
0.2no rank
Overall rating
no rank0.3
0.3no rank
Offense rating
no rank0.3
-0.1no rank
Defense rating
no rank0.0
-2.0no rank
Pace
no rank3.1
36%no rank
Returning PPA
no rank22%
#3636th
Power rank
24th#24
#3232nd
Recruiting rank
11th#11

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total69.5
Model total64.0
EDGE UNDER 69.5 · HIT

RATINGS AS OF: ARK wk 17 · TENN wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home)
+8.1
Open spread
-13.5
Close spread
-10.0
Close total
68.5

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

ARK31
FINALNeyland Stadium
TENN34
  • WinTennesseeWIN HIT
  • ATSArkansasATS HIT
  • TotalsUNDER 68.5TOTAL HIT
  • EdgeUNDER 69.5EDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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