WK 4 · 2025OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET
Week 4 · 2025 season
The Board
Every game on the slate gets a win probability, a margin, and a total. Cyan rows cleared the 3-point bar against the opening total; those carry the only badge we sell. The rest of the board is the model showing its work.
62Games modeled
22Edges badged
40Passes
Matchups read Away @ Home. Open every game for the full model read: win probability, paired team ratings, and the grade once it goes final.
Thursday, Sep 18
OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rice @ Charlotte7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 44.5 | 49.1 | +4.6OVER |
Friday, Sep 19
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tulsa @ Oklahoma State7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 56.0 | 58.7 | +2.7 |
| Iowa @ Rutgers8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 46.0 | 49.5 | +3.5OVER |
Saturday, Sep 20
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV @ Miami (OH)12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 48.5 | 48.7 | +0.2 |
| South Carolina State @ South Florida12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.3 | 56.4 | +0.2 |
| Arkansas @ Memphis12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 62.5 | 56.1 | -6.3UNDER |
| Syracuse @ Clemson12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.8 | 60.0 | +5.3OVER |
| Bowling Green @ Louisville12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.3 | 51.0 | -1.2 |
| North Texas @ Army12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.8 | 52.1 | -0.6 |
| Maryland @ Wisconsin12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 43.5 | 46.7 | +3.2OVER |
| SMU @ TCU12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 63.3 | 55.8 | -7.5UNDER |
| Texas Tech @ Utah12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 55.5 | 58.0 | +2.5 |
| Wofford @ Virginia Tech12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 48.8 | 48.9 | +0.2 |
| UAB @ Tennessee12:45 PM ET · FINAL | 67.8 | 63.9 | -3.8UNDER |
| Wagner @ Central Michigan1:00 PM ET · FINAL | 45.5 | 45.6 | +0.1 |
| Oregon State @ Oregon3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.5 | 61.0 | +4.5OVER |
| Louisiana @ Eastern Michigan3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 51.8 | 51.2 | -0.6 |
| Tulane @ Ole Miss3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 61.0 | 57.9 | -3.1UNDER |
| Auburn @ Oklahoma3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 49.5 | 52.1 | +2.6 |
| Kent State @ Florida State3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 55.8 | 54.5 | -1.3 |
| Troy @ Buffalo3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 43.0 | 45.4 | +2.4 |
| Gardner-Webb @ Ohio3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 53.2 | +1.7 |
| North Carolina @ UCF3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 50.3 | 47.5 | -2.7 |
| James Madison @ Liberty3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 49.0 | 48.4 | -0.6 |
| Toledo @ Western Michigan3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 52.0 | 51.7 | -0.3 |
| Michigan @ Nebraska3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 44.5 | 47.0 | +2.5 |
| Ball State @ UConn3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 51.8 | -0.8 |
| Purdue @ Notre Dame3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 53.4 | +0.9 |
| NC State @ Duke4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 59.0 | 56.8 | -2.2 |
| Northern Illinois @ Mississippi State4:15 PM ET · FINAL | 49.3 | 52.5 | +3.2OVER |
| Temple @ Georgia Tech4:30 PM ET · FINAL | 53.5 | 57.1 | +3.6OVER |
| Idaho @ San José State5:00 PM ET · FINAL | 50.5 | 48.5 | -2.0 |
| Delaware @ Florida International6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 54.0 | -0.5 |
| West Virginia @ Kansas6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.8 | 55.1 | +0.3 |
| Duquesne @ Akron6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 49.7 | -1.8 |
| Arkansas State @ Kennesaw State6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 57.9 | +3.4OVER |
| Nevada @ Western Kentucky7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 52.4 | -2.1 |
| Marshall @ Middle Tennessee7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 46.8 | 51.8 | +5.1OVER |
| UT Martin @ Missouri State7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 54.2 | +1.7 |
| Murray State @ Jacksonville State7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 60.5 | 55.8 | -4.7UNDER |
| Coastal Carolina @ South Alabama7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 52.1 | +0.6 |
| South Carolina @ Missouri7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 46.0 | 49.8 | +3.8OVER |
| Boise State @ Air Force7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 52.5 | +0.9 |
| Maine @ Georgia Southern7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 55.5 | 56.0 | +0.5 |
| BYU @ East Carolina7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 49.0 | 49.5 | +0.5 |
| Southern Miss @ Louisiana Tech7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 48.5 | -3.0UNDER |
| Illinois @ Indiana7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 54.2 | +1.7 |
| Stanford @ Virginia7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 48.8 | 50.7 | +1.9 |
| Washington @ Washington State7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 53.5 | 56.2 | +2.7 |
| Arizona State @ Baylor7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 59.0 | 60.4 | +1.4 |
| Georgia State @ Vanderbilt7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 53.3 | 59.3 | +6.0OVER |
| Florida @ Miami7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 54.0 | 54.1 | +0.1 |
| SE Louisiana @ LSU7:45 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 52.5 | +1.0 |
| McNeese @ Utah State8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 61.5 | 56.2 | -5.3UNDER |
| Sam Houston @ Texas8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 49.2 | -2.3 |
| Nicholls @ Texas State8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 58.9 | +4.4OVER |
| UL Monroe @ UTEP9:00 PM ET · FINAL | 47.0 | 51.5 | +4.5OVER |
| UTSA @ Colorado State9:30 PM ET · FINAL | 58.3 | 57.9 | -0.4 |
| Wyoming @ Colorado10:15 PM ET · FINAL | 43.8 | 47.2 | +3.4OVER |
| California @ San Diego State10:30 PM ET · FINAL | 48.5 | 48.6 | +0.1 |
| Michigan State @ USC11:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.0 | 58.2 | +2.2 |
| Fresno State @ Hawai'i11:59 PM ET · FINAL | 47.5 | 52.7 | +5.2OVER |
Model totals vs the openers. The badge needs 3 points of daylight; win and spread numbers ride along unbadged.