Week 4 · 2025 season
Graded and filed. All four markets are below.
Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.
RATINGS AS OF: NCSU wk 17 · DUKE wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL
Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.
One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.
The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.
All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.
