SMU @ TCU

The UNDER 63.3 cashed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

SAT, SEP 20 · FINAL · AMON G. CARTER STADIUM

SMU9-435%

TCU9-465%

SMUNATL RANKTCU

0.4no rank

Overall rating

no rank0.2

0.3no rank

Offense rating

no rank0.1

0.1no rank

Defense rating

no rank0.0

-1.2no rank

Pace

no rank-0.1

50%no rank

Returning PPA

no rank61%

#1111th

Power rank

55th#55

#3131st

Recruiting rank

24th#24

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total63.3

Model total55.8

EDGE UNDER 63.3 · HIT

RATINGS AS OF: SMU wk 17 · TCU wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home): +3.8
Open spread: -6.5
Close spread: -6.5
Close total: 63.5

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

SMU24

FINALAmon G. Carter Stadium

TCU35

WinTCUWIN HIT
ATSSMUATS MISS
TotalsUNDER 63.5TOTAL HIT
EdgeUNDER 63.3EDGE HIT

Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

Back to the week 4 board