WK 12 · 2025OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET
Week 12 · 2025 season
The Board
Every game on the slate gets a win probability, a margin, and a total. Cyan rows cleared the 3-point bar against the opening total; those carry the only badge we sell. The rest of the board is the model showing its work.
59Games modeled
24Edges badged
35Passes
Matchups read Away @ Home. Open every game for the full model read: win probability, paired team ratings, and the grade once it goes final.
Tuesday, Nov 11
OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kent State @ Akron7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 47.5 | 46.2 | -1.3 |
| Ohio @ Western Michigan8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 47.5 | 49.7 | +2.2 |
Wednesday, Nov 12
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Illinois @ Massachusetts7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 42.8 | 46.3 | +3.5OVER |
| Toledo @ Miami (OH)7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 44.5 | 47.8 | +3.3OVER |
| Buffalo @ Central Michigan7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 43.5 | 42.5 | -1.0 |
Thursday, Nov 13
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy @ Old Dominion7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 53.3 | 55.0 | +1.8 |
Friday, Nov 14
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson @ Louisville7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 60.5 | 54.7 | -5.8UNDER |
| Minnesota @ Oregon9:00 PM ET · FINAL | 45.0 | 44.9 | -0.1 |
Saturday, Nov 15
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin @ Indiana12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 44.0 | 43.2 | -0.8 |
| Kansas State @ Oklahoma State12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 57.0 | +2.5 |
| UTSA @ Charlotte12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 60.8 | 58.5 | -2.2 |
| Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.5 | 54.1 | -2.4 |
| Arizona @ Cincinnati12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.5 | 52.8 | -3.7UNDER |
| Michigan @ Northwestern12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 40.5 | 45.5 | +5.0OVER |
| Eastern Michigan @ Ball State12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 50.0 | 53.2 | +3.2OVER |
| South Florida @ Navy12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 64.0 | 60.8 | -3.3UNDER |
| Air Force @ UConn12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 63.5 | 57.5 | -6.0UNDER |
| South Carolina @ Texas A&M12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 48.3 | 50.4 | +2.2 |
| Arkansas @ LSU12:45 PM ET · FINAL | 55.5 | 55.3 | -0.3 |
| Oregon State @ Tulsa1:00 PM ET · FINAL | 50.5 | 51.6 | +1.1 |
| West Virginia @ Arizona State1:00 PM ET · FINAL | 47.5 | 53.4 | +5.9OVER |
| Tennessee Tech @ Kentucky1:30 PM ET · FINAL | 52.3 | 54.5 | +2.2 |
| North Texas @ UAB2:00 PM ET · FINAL | 69.5 | 60.1 | -9.4UNDER |
| Marshall @ Georgia State2:00 PM ET · FINAL | 63.0 | 58.6 | -4.4UNDER |
| UTEP @ Missouri State3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 50.5 | 50.9 | +0.4 |
| Colorado State @ New Mexico3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.5 | 56.2 | +2.7 |
| Penn State @ Michigan State3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 49.5 | 51.4 | +1.9 |
| Georgia Tech @ Boston College3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 57.8 | 58.1 | +0.3 |
| Virginia @ Duke3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 59.0 | 53.8 | -5.2UNDER |
| UCF @ Texas Tech3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 47.5 | 52.3 | +4.8OVER |
| Oklahoma @ Alabama3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 56.5 | 47.8 | -8.7UNDER |
| App State @ James Madison3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 53.8 | 56.5 | +2.8 |
| Texas State @ Southern Miss3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 64.8 | 59.7 | -5.1UNDER |
| South Alabama @ UL Monroe3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 51.0 | -0.5 |
| San José State @ Nevada3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 54.6 | +2.1 |
| Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 56.3 | 52.8 | -3.5UNDER |
| Iowa @ USC3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 49.5 | 51.3 | +1.8 |
| Maryland @ Illinois3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 53.5 | 54.9 | +1.4 |
| NC State @ Miami3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 55.3 | 53.4 | -1.8 |
| Florida Atlantic @ Tulane4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 63.0 | 57.8 | -5.2UNDER |
| Memphis @ East Carolina4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 60.5 | 57.3 | -3.2UNDER |
| New Mexico State @ Tennessee4:15 PM ET · FINAL | 61.5 | 59.6 | -1.9 |
| North Carolina @ Wake Forest4:30 PM ET · FINAL | 39.0 | 45.8 | +6.8OVER |
| Liberty @ Florida International5:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.0 | 54.1 | +0.1 |
| Coastal Carolina @ Georgia Southern6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 57.8 | 57.3 | -0.5 |
| Delaware @ Sam Houston7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.5 | 56.4 | -0.1 |
| Purdue @ Washington7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.8 | 48.6 | -5.1UNDER |
| Utah @ Baylor7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 60.5 | 57.8 | -2.7 |
| Florida @ Ole Miss7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.8 | 56.0 | +3.3OVER |
| Utah State @ UNLV7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 70.5 | 64.9 | -5.6UNDER |
| Texas @ Georgia7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 49.5 | 52.1 | +2.6 |
| UCLA @ Ohio State7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 48.5 | 51.5 | +3.0OVER |
| Virginia Tech @ Florida State7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 53.6 | -0.9 |
| Mississippi State @ Missouri7:45 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 50.3 | -1.2 |
| Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville State8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 52.4 | +0.9 |
| Louisiana Tech @ Washington State10:00 PM ET · FINAL | 47.3 | 49.3 | +2.0 |
| TCU @ BYU10:15 PM ET · FINAL | 52.0 | 51.1 | -0.9 |
| Wyoming @ Fresno State10:30 PM ET · FINAL | 39.5 | 47.4 | +7.9OVER |
| Boise State @ San Diego State10:30 PM ET · FINAL | 42.0 | 43.9 | +1.9 |
Model totals vs the openers. The badge needs 3 points of daylight; win and spread numbers ride along unbadged.