Northern Illinois @ Massachusetts

The OVER 42.8 cashed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

WED, NOV 12 · FINAL · WARREN MCGUIRK ALUMNI STADIUM

Northern Illinois3-977%

Massachusetts0-1223%

NIUNATL RANKMASS

-0.1no rank

Overall rating

no rank-0.3

0.0no rank

Offense rating

no rank-0.1

-0.2no rank

Defense rating

no rank-0.2

-5.6no rank

Pace

no rank-4.8

53%no rank

Returning PPA

no rank76%

#132132nd

Power rank

136th#136

#8484th

Recruiting rank

145th#145

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total42.8

Model total46.3

EDGE OVER 42.8 · HIT

RATINGS AS OF: NIU wk 17 · MASS wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home): -14.6
Open spread: +11.0
Close spread: +9.5
Close total: 43.5

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

NIU45

FINALWarren McGuirk Alumni Stadium

MASS3

WinNorthern IllinoisWIN HIT
ATSNorthern IllinoisATS HIT
TotalsOVER 43.5TOTAL HIT
EdgeOVER 42.8EDGE HIT

Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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