Marshall @ Georgia State

The UNDER 63.0 cashed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

SAT, NOV 15 · FINAL · CENTER PARC STADIUM

Marshall5-786%

Georgia State1-1114%

MRSHNATL RANKGAST

0.1no rank

Overall rating

no rank-0.1

0.1no rank

Offense rating

no rank0.1

-0.0no rank

Defense rating

no rank-0.2

0.8no rank

Pace

no rank1.1

1%no rank

Returning PPA

no rank69%

#7676th

Power rank

130th#130

#120120th

Recruiting rank

67th#67

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total63.0

Model total58.6

EDGE UNDER 63.0 · HIT

RATINGS AS OF: MRSH wk 17 · GAST wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home): -21.1
Open spread: +6.5
Close spread: +9.5
Close total: 59.5

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

MRSH30

FINALCenter Parc Stadium

GAST18

WinMarshallWIN HIT
ATSMarshallATS HIT
TotalsUNDER 59.5TOTAL HIT
EdgeUNDER 63.0EDGE HIT

Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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