WK 11 · 2025OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET
Week 11 · 2025 season
The Board
Every game on the slate gets a win probability, a margin, and a total. Cyan rows cleared the 3-point bar against the opening total; those carry the only badge we sell. The rest of the board is the model showing its work.
52Games modeled
15Edges badged
37Passes
Matchups read Away @ Home. Open every game for the full model read: win probability, paired team ratings, and the grade once it goes final.
Tuesday, Nov 4
OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Massachusetts @ Akron7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 48.8 | 50.6 | +1.9 |
| Miami (OH) @ Ohio7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 50.0 | 47.7 | -2.3 |
Wednesday, Nov 5
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kent State @ Ball State7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 46.0 | 48.8 | +2.8 |
| Northern Illinois @ Toledo7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 42.0 | 42.6 | +0.6 |
Thursday, Nov 6
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Southern @ App State7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 62.5 | 57.0 | -5.5UNDER |
| UTSA @ South Florida7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 68.0 | 66.3 | -1.7 |
Friday, Nov 7
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston @ UCF8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 48.0 | 52.3 | +4.3OVER |
| Tulane @ Memphis9:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.5 | 55.4 | -1.1 |
| Northwestern @ USC9:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 51.6 | +0.1 |
Saturday, Nov 8
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison @ Marshall12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 55.5 | 60.2 | +4.7OVER |
| Colorado @ West Virginia12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 55.0 | 52.7 | -2.3 |
| Southern Miss @ Arkansas State12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 59.5 | 50.4 | -9.1UNDER |
| Indiana @ Penn State12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 50.8 | -0.7 |
| SMU @ Boston College12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.3 | 52.9 | -0.4 |
| Temple @ Army12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 47.0 | 47.9 | +0.9 |
| BYU @ Texas Tech12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.0 | 52.1 | -0.9 |
| Georgia @ Mississippi State12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 57.5 | 55.9 | -1.6 |
| Missouri State @ Liberty1:00 PM ET · FINAL | 50.5 | 49.9 | -0.6 |
| Ohio State @ Purdue1:00 PM ET · FINAL | 48.5 | 52.2 | +3.7OVER |
| Bowling Green @ Eastern Michigan1:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 50.1 | -1.4 |
| The Citadel @ Ole Miss1:00 PM ET · FINAL | 63.5 | 60.4 | -3.1UNDER |
| UAB @ Rice2:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.0 | 55.0 | +1.0 |
| Maryland @ Rutgers2:30 PM ET · FINAL | 59.0 | 54.3 | -4.7UNDER |
| Louisiana Tech @ Delaware3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 57.5 | 56.2 | -1.3 |
| Tulsa @ Florida Atlantic3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 65.5 | 60.8 | -4.7UNDER |
| Florida International @ Middle Tennessee3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.0 | 52.2 | +0.2 |
| Jacksonville State @ UTEP3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 49.3 | 50.9 | +1.6 |
| Charlotte @ East Carolina3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 55.5 | 53.2 | -2.3 |
| Syracuse @ Miami3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 46.5 | 51.6 | +5.2OVER |
| Oregon @ Iowa3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 43.5 | 45.9 | +2.4 |
| Texas A&M @ Missouri3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 49.5 | 50.4 | +0.9 |
| Iowa State @ TCU3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 57.5 | 57.4 | -0.1 |
| Kansas @ Arizona3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 56.5 | 54.8 | -1.7 |
| Duke @ UConn3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 66.5 | 56.1 | -10.4UNDER |
| Kennesaw State @ New Mexico State4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.0 | 53.5 | -0.5 |
| Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.5 | 58.0 | +1.5 |
| Auburn @ Vanderbilt4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 45.5 | 44.3 | -1.2 |
| Washington @ Wisconsin4:30 PM ET · FINAL | 45.5 | 48.8 | +3.3OVER |
| Stanford @ North Carolina4:30 PM ET · FINAL | 43.0 | 46.2 | +3.2OVER |
| Texas State @ Louisiana5:00 PM ET · FINAL | 64.5 | 55.9 | -8.6UNDER |
| Air Force @ San José State6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 66.0 | 63.1 | -2.9 |
| California @ Louisville7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 50.0 | 49.0 | -1.0 |
| Wake Forest @ Virginia7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 49.0 | 50.4 | +1.4 |
| Florida State @ Clemson7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 55.5 | 58.1 | +2.6 |
| Florida @ Kentucky7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 45.0 | 47.9 | +2.9 |
| LSU @ Alabama7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 52.0 | 54.3 | +2.3 |
| Navy @ Notre Dame7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 56.5 | 54.4 | -2.1 |
| Nevada @ Utah State7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 53.0 | 50.0 | -3.0 |
| Nebraska @ UCLA9:00 PM ET · FINAL | 43.8 | 47.4 | +3.6OVER |
| UNLV @ Colorado State9:30 PM ET · FINAL | 61.5 | 54.5 | -7.0UNDER |
| Sam Houston @ Oregon State10:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 52.0 | +0.5 |
| San Diego State @ Hawai'i11:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.0 | 51.2 | +0.2 |
Model totals vs the openers. The badge needs 3 points of daylight; win and spread numbers ride along unbadged.