Florida International @ Middle Tennessee

Graded and filed. All four markets are below.

The verdict

SAT, NOV 8 · FINAL · JOHNNY "RED" FLOYD STADIUM

Florida International7-655%

Middle Tennessee3-945%

FIUNATL RANKMTSU

0.1no rank

Overall rating

no rank-0.1

0.1no rank

Offense rating

no rank0.1

-0.1no rank

Defense rating

no rank-0.2

-1.3no rank

Pace

no rank-3.3

42%no rank

Returning PPA

no rank99%

#8989th

Power rank

117th#117

#9090th

Recruiting rank

98th#98

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total52.0

Model total52.2

NO BADGE THIS GAME

RATINGS AS OF: FIU wk 17 · MTSU wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home): +1.7
Open spread: +1.5
Close spread: -1.5
Close total: 50.5

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

FIU56

FINALJohnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

MTSU30

WinFlorida InternationalWIN HIT
ATSMiddle TennesseeATS MISS
TotalsOVER 50.5TOTAL HIT
Edgeno badgePASS

Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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