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WK 11 · 2025FINALOPENER CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET

Week 11 · 2025 season

Georgia Southern @ App State

The UNDER 62.5 cashed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

THU, NOV 6 · FINAL · KIDD BREWER STADIUM
Georgia Southern7-638%
App State5-862%
GASONATL RANKAPP
0.0no rank
Overall rating
no rank-0.0
0.2no rank
Offense rating
no rank0.1
-0.1no rank
Defense rating
no rank-0.1
1.1no rank
Pace
no rank1.9
92%no rank
Returning PPA
no rank14%
#102102nd
Power rank
112th#112
#8080th
Recruiting rank
116th#116

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total62.5
Model total57.0
EDGE UNDER 62.5 · HIT

RATINGS AS OF: GASO wk 17 · APP wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home)
+7.1
Open spread
-5.5
Close spread
-4.5
Close total
61.5

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

GASO25
FINALKidd Brewer Stadium
APP23
  • WinApp StateWIN MISS
  • ATSApp StateATS MISS
  • TotalsUNDER 61.5TOTAL HIT
  • EdgeUNDER 62.5EDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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