WK 1 · 2025OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET
Week 1 · 2025 season
The Board
Every game on the slate gets a win probability, a margin, and a total. Cyan rows cleared the 3-point bar against the opening total; those carry the only badge we sell. The rest of the board is the model showing its work.
96Games modeled
35Edges badged
61Passes
Matchups read Away @ Home. Open every game for the full model read: win probability, paired team ratings, and the grade once it goes final.
Saturday, Aug 23
OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa State @ Kansas State12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 49.5 | 50.3 | +0.8 |
| Idaho State @ UNLV4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 64.5 | 56.5 | -8.0UNDER |
| Fresno State @ Kansas6:30 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 46.7 | -4.8UNDER |
| Sam Houston @ Western Kentucky7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 61.5 | 50.7 | -10.8UNDER |
| Stanford @ Hawai'i7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 53.5 | 56.8 | +3.3OVER |
Thursday, Aug 28
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State @ South Florida5:30 PM ET · FINAL | 63.5 | 56.9 | -6.6UNDER |
| Ohio @ Rutgers6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 46.5 | 49.8 | +3.3OVER |
| Lafayette @ Bowling Green6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 52.4 | -0.1 |
| Delaware State @ Delaware7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 55.0 | 54.0 | -1.1 |
| St. Francis (PA) @ UL Monroe7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 46.0 | 48.7 | +2.7 |
| East Carolina @ NC State7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 58.5 | 54.5 | -4.0UNDER |
| Wyoming @ Akron7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 49.5 | 49.5 | +0.0 |
| Jacksonville State @ UCF7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.5 | 55.8 | +2.3 |
| Central Arkansas @ Missouri7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 52.0 | 51.3 | -0.7 |
| UT Martin @ Oklahoma State7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 55.5 | 55.1 | -0.4 |
| Elon @ Duke7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 47.5 | 50.3 | +2.8 |
| Buffalo @ Minnesota8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 45.5 | 48.6 | +3.1OVER |
| Stephen F. Austin @ Houston8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 55.5 | 52.1 | -3.4UNDER |
| Alabama State @ UAB8:30 PM ET · FINAL | 53.5 | 57.4 | +3.9OVER |
| Nebraska @ Cincinnati9:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 51.9 | -0.6 |
| Miami (OH) @ Wisconsin9:00 PM ET · FINAL | 40.5 | 44.7 | +4.2OVER |
| Stony Brook @ San Diego State10:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.5 | 55.5 | +2.0 |
Friday, Aug 29
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tarleton State @ Army6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 50.0 | 52.6 | +2.6 |
| Kennesaw State @ Wake Forest7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 52.4 | +0.8 |
| App State @ Charlotte7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.5 | 56.0 | +2.5 |
| Bethune-Cookman @ Florida International7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 56.0 | +1.5 |
| Western Michigan @ Michigan State7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 49.5 | 53.0 | +3.5OVER |
| Western Illinois @ Illinois7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 62.5 | 58.3 | -4.2UNDER |
| Wagner @ Kansas7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 56.5 | 58.1 | +1.6 |
| Auburn @ Baylor8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 57.5 | 55.7 | -1.8 |
| Georgia Tech @ Colorado8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 55.5 | 56.1 | +0.6 |
| UNLV @ Sam Houston9:30 PM ET · FINAL | 58.5 | 51.5 | -7.0UNDER |
| Central Michigan @ San José State10:30 PM ET · FINAL | 50.5 | 47.4 | -3.1UNDER |
Saturday, Aug 30
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merrimack @ Kent State12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 50.5 | 50.2 | -0.3 |
| Duquesne @ Pittsburgh12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.3 | 56.4 | +0.1 |
| Syracuse @ Tennessee12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.5 | 60.5 | +7.0OVER |
| Ball State @ Purdue12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 50.5 | 52.2 | +1.7 |
| VMI @ Navy12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.8 | 49.6 | -2.1 |
| Northwestern @ Tulane12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 47.5 | 47.9 | +0.4 |
| Florida Atlantic @ Maryland12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 57.5 | 55.0 | -2.5 |
| Texas @ Ohio State12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 49.5 | 50.0 | +0.5 |
| Mississippi State @ Southern Miss12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 59.5 | 53.7 | -5.8UNDER |
| Toledo @ Kentucky12:45 PM ET · FINAL | 48.5 | 49.3 | +0.8 |
| Fordham @ Boston College2:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.5 | 56.9 | +3.4OVER |
| Central Connecticut @ UConn2:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 50.8 | -0.7 |
| Robert Morris @ West Virginia2:00 PM ET · FINAL | 55.5 | 56.4 | +0.9 |
| Old Dominion @ Indiana2:30 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 53.7 | -0.8 |
| Eastern Kentucky @ Louisville3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.5 | 60.9 | +4.4OVER |
| Bucknell @ Air Force3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 55.5 | 53.2 | -2.3 |
| South Dakota @ Iowa State3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 46.5 | 49.7 | +3.2OVER |
| Nevada @ Penn State3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 58.5 | 56.1 | -2.4 |
| Temple @ Massachusetts3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 52.7 | +1.2 |
| Marshall @ Georgia3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 55.5 | 53.4 | -2.1 |
| Holy Cross @ Northern Illinois3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 48.7 | -2.8 |
| Alabama @ Florida State3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 50.5 | 51.8 | +1.3 |
| Maine @ Liberty4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 54.5 | +2.0 |
| Montana State @ Oregon4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.0 | 58.5 | +2.5 |
| Alabama A&M @ Arkansas4:15 PM ET · FINAL | 62.5 | 58.9 | -3.6UNDER |
| Chattanooga @ Memphis4:30 PM ET · FINAL | 55.5 | 56.7 | +1.2 |
| Coastal Carolina @ Virginia6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 57.5 | 54.7 | -2.8 |
| Illinois State @ Oklahoma6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 61.0 | 54.6 | -6.4UNDER |
| Weber State @ James Madison6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 51.0 | -3.5UNDER |
| UAlbany @ Iowa6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 48.5 | 45.5 | -3.0UNDER |
| North Alabama @ Western Kentucky7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 60.5 | 55.3 | -5.2UNDER |
| Long Island University @ Florida7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.5 | 56.9 | +0.4 |
| Charleston Southern @ Vanderbilt7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 48.5 | 53.5 | +5.0OVER |
| Austin Peay @ Middle Tennessee7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.5 | 54.8 | +1.3 |
| Nicholls @ Troy7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 49.5 | 51.0 | +1.5 |
| North Dakota @ Kansas State7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.5 | 56.6 | +0.1 |
| Southeast Missouri State @ Arkansas State7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 59.5 | 58.0 | -1.5 |
| UTSA @ Texas A&M7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.5 | 56.0 | -0.5 |
| Morgan State @ South Alabama7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 52.1 | +0.6 |
| New Mexico @ Michigan7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 52.1 | -0.4 |
| Missouri State @ USC7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 59.5 | 55.8 | -3.7UNDER |
| LSU @ Clemson7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 57.5 | 56.8 | -0.7 |
| Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Texas Tech7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 62.5 | 58.4 | -4.1UNDER |
| UTEP @ Utah State7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 59.5 | 56.8 | -2.7 |
| SE Louisiana @ Louisiana Tech7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 49.3 | 51.5 | +2.2 |
| Georgia State @ Ole Miss7:45 PM ET · FINAL | 62.5 | 58.9 | -3.6UNDER |
| Eastern Michigan @ Texas State8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 58.5 | 58.9 | +0.4 |
| Rice @ Louisiana8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 49.5 | 50.5 | +1.0 |
| Lamar @ North Texas8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 63.5 | 56.0 | -7.5UNDER |
| Abilene Christian @ Tulsa8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 61.0 | 64.3 | +3.3OVER |
| Portland State @ BYU8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 59.0 | 57.5 | -1.6 |
| East Texas A&M @ SMU9:00 PM ET · FINAL | 63.5 | 54.1 | -9.3UNDER |
| Bryant @ New Mexico State9:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.5 | 58.3 | +4.8OVER |
| Georgia Southern @ Fresno State9:30 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 52.4 | -2.1 |
| Idaho @ Washington State10:00 PM ET · FINAL | 50.5 | 50.1 | -0.4 |
| Northern Arizona @ Arizona State10:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 55.2 | +2.7 |
| California @ Oregon State10:30 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 52.6 | +1.1 |
| Hawai'i @ Arizona10:30 PM ET · FINAL | 55.5 | 55.5 | -0.0 |
| Utah @ UCLA11:00 PM ET · FINAL | 50.5 | 47.9 | -2.6 |
| Colorado State @ Washington11:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 54.9 | +2.4 |
Sunday, Aug 31
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Tech @ South Carolina3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 47.5 | 48.0 | +0.5 |
| Notre Dame @ Miami7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 53.5 | 57.3 | +3.8OVER |
Monday, Sep 1
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCU @ North Carolina8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 59.5 | 54.7 | -4.8UNDER |
Model totals vs the openers. The badge needs 3 points of daylight; win and spread numbers ride along unbadged.