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WK 1 · 2025FINALOPENER CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET

Week 1 · 2025 season

Illinois State @ Oklahoma

The UNDER 61.0 cashed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

SAT, AUG 30 · FINAL · MEMORIAL STADIUM (NORMAN, OK)
Illinois State1%
Oklahoma10-399%
Illinois StateNATL RANKOU
n/ano rank
Overall rating
no rank0.4
n/ano rank
Offense rating
no rank0.1
n/ano rank
Defense rating
no rank0.2
n/ano rank
Pace
no rank-2.7
n/ano rank
Returning PPA
no rank53%
n/ano rank
Power rank
15th#15
n/ano rank
Recruiting rank
17th#17

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total61.0
Model total54.6
EDGE UNDER 61.0 · HIT

RATINGS AS OF: OU wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home)
+43.1
Open spread
-35.5
Close spread
-39.0
Close total
60.8

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

Illinois State3
FINALMemorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
OU35
  • WinOklahomaWIN HIT
  • ATSOklahomaATS MISS
  • TotalsUNDER 60.8TOTAL HIT
  • EdgeUNDER 61.0EDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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