Mississippi State @ Southern Miss

The UNDER 59.5 cashed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

SAT, AUG 30 · FINAL · M. M. ROBERTS STADIUM

Mississippi State5-880%

Southern Miss7-620%

MSSTNATL RANKUSM

0.2no rank

Overall rating

no rank-0.0

0.2no rank

Offense rating

no rank0.1

-0.0no rank

Defense rating

no rank-0.1

2.3no rank

Pace

no rank-1.7

42%no rank

Returning PPA

no rank52%

#5757th

Power rank

108th#108

#2828th

Recruiting rank

105th#105

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total59.5

Model total53.7

EDGE UNDER 59.5 · HIT

RATINGS AS OF: MSST wk 17 · USM wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home): -18.9
Open spread: +12.5
Close spread: +14.5
Close total: 59.5

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

MSST34

FINALM. M. Roberts Stadium

USM17

WinMississippi StateWIN HIT
ATSMississippi StateATS HIT
TotalsUNDER 59.5TOTAL HIT
EdgeUNDER 59.5EDGE HIT

Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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