The Board

Every game on the slate gets a win probability, a margin, and a total. Cyan rows cleared the 3-point bar against the opening total; those carry the only badge we sell. The rest of the board is the model showing its work.

56Games modeled

21Edges badged

35Passes

Matchups read Away @ Home. Open every game for the full model read: win probability, paired team ratings, and the grade once it goes final.

Thursday, Oct 9

OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET

Thursday, Oct 9 games: opening total, model total, and edge. Cyan-washed rows with a printed lean are badged totals edges.
Game	Open	Model	Edge
East Carolina @ Tulane7:30 PM ET · FINAL	54.0	49.7	-4.3UNDER
Southern Miss @ Georgia Southern8:00 PM ET · FINAL	60.0	56.5	-3.5UNDER

Friday, Oct 10

Friday, Oct 10 games: opening total, model total, and edge. Cyan-washed rows with a printed lean are badged totals edges.
Game	Open	Model	Edge
South Florida @ North Texas7:30 PM ET · FINAL	66.0	61.3	-4.7UNDER
Rutgers @ Washington9:00 PM ET · FINAL	59.0	62.6	+3.6OVER

Saturday, Oct 11

Saturday, Oct 11 games: opening total, model total, and edge. Cyan-washed rows with a printed lean are badged totals edges.
Game	Open	Model	Edge
Charlotte @ Army12:00 PM ET · FINAL	47.0	50.2	+3.2OVER
Stanford @ SMU12:00 PM ET · FINAL	56.5	52.8	-3.7UNDER
Alabama @ Missouri12:00 PM ET · FINAL	53.5	58.2	+4.7OVER
UCLA @ Michigan State12:00 PM ET · FINAL	55.5	51.1	-4.4UNDER
Louisiana @ James Madison12:00 PM ET · FINAL	46.5	49.7	+3.2OVER
Massachusetts @ Kent State2:30 PM ET · FINAL	48.8	52.0	+3.3OVER
NC State @ Notre Dame3:30 PM ET · FINAL	62.5	58.9	-3.6UNDER
Ball State @ Western Michigan3:30 PM ET · FINAL	43.3	48.0	+4.8OVER
Air Force @ UNLV3:30 PM ET · FINAL	68.5	61.5	-7.0UNDER
Wake Forest @ Oregon State3:30 PM ET · FINAL	52.5	55.7	+3.2OVER
Indiana @ Oregon3:30 PM ET · FINAL	55.0	59.2	+4.2OVER
Arkansas @ Tennessee4:15 PM ET · FINAL	69.5	64.0	-5.5UNDER
UAB @ Florida Atlantic6:00 PM ET · FINAL	69.5	63.6	-5.9UNDER
Iowa @ Wisconsin7:00 PM ET · FINAL	37.5	46.4	+8.8OVER
Michigan @ USC7:30 PM ET · FINAL	56.0	59.4	+3.4OVER
New Mexico @ Boise State9:45 PM ET · FINAL	60.0	52.3	-7.7UNDER
San Diego State @ Nevada10:30 PM ET · FINAL	42.0	46.7	+4.7OVER

Model totals vs the openers. The badge needs 3 points of daylight; win and spread numbers ride along unbadged.