WK 12 · 2025OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET
Week 12 · 2025 season
The Board
Every game on the slate gets a win probability, a margin, and a total. Cyan rows cleared the 3-point bar against the opening total; those carry the only badge we sell. The rest of the board is the model showing its work.
59Games modeled
24Edges badged
35Passes
Matchups read Away @ Home. Open every game for the full model read: win probability, paired team ratings, and the grade once it goes final.
Wednesday, Nov 12
OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Illinois @ Massachusetts7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 42.8 | 46.3 | +3.5OVER |
| Toledo @ Miami (OH)7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 44.5 | 47.8 | +3.3OVER |
Friday, Nov 14
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson @ Louisville7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 60.5 | 54.7 | -5.8UNDER |
Saturday, Nov 15
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona @ Cincinnati12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.5 | 52.8 | -3.7UNDER |
| Michigan @ Northwestern12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 40.5 | 45.5 | +5.0OVER |
| Eastern Michigan @ Ball State12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 50.0 | 53.2 | +3.2OVER |
| South Florida @ Navy12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 64.0 | 60.8 | -3.3UNDER |
| Air Force @ UConn12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 63.5 | 57.5 | -6.0UNDER |
| West Virginia @ Arizona State1:00 PM ET · FINAL | 47.5 | 53.4 | +5.9OVER |
| North Texas @ UAB2:00 PM ET · FINAL | 69.5 | 60.1 | -9.4UNDER |
| Marshall @ Georgia State2:00 PM ET · FINAL | 63.0 | 58.6 | -4.4UNDER |
| Virginia @ Duke3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 59.0 | 53.8 | -5.2UNDER |
| UCF @ Texas Tech3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 47.5 | 52.3 | +4.8OVER |
| Oklahoma @ Alabama3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 56.5 | 47.8 | -8.7UNDER |
| Texas State @ Southern Miss3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 64.8 | 59.7 | -5.1UNDER |
| Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 56.3 | 52.8 | -3.5UNDER |
| Florida Atlantic @ Tulane4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 63.0 | 57.8 | -5.2UNDER |
| Memphis @ East Carolina4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 60.5 | 57.3 | -3.2UNDER |
| North Carolina @ Wake Forest4:30 PM ET · FINAL | 39.0 | 45.8 | +6.8OVER |
| Purdue @ Washington7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.8 | 48.6 | -5.1UNDER |
| Florida @ Ole Miss7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.8 | 56.0 | +3.3OVER |
| Utah State @ UNLV7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 70.5 | 64.9 | -5.6UNDER |
| UCLA @ Ohio State7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 48.5 | 51.5 | +3.0OVER |
| Wyoming @ Fresno State10:30 PM ET · FINAL | 39.5 | 47.4 | +7.9OVER |
Model totals vs the openers. The badge needs 3 points of daylight; win and spread numbers ride along unbadged.