WK 6 · 2025OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET
Week 6 · 2025 season
The Board
Every game on the slate gets a win probability, a margin, and a total. Cyan rows cleared the 3-point bar against the opening total; those carry the only badge we sell. The rest of the board is the model showing its work.
51Games modeled
18Edges badged
33Passes
Matchups read Away @ Home. Open every game for the full model read: win probability, paired team ratings, and the grade once it goes final.
Thursday, Oct 2
OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Houston @ New Mexico State9:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.3 | 51.1 | -1.1 |
Friday, Oct 3
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte @ South Florida7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 55.0 | 53.3 | -1.8 |
| Western Kentucky @ Delaware7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 62.0 | 57.9 | -4.1UNDER |
| New Mexico @ San José State10:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.5 | 55.7 | -0.8 |
| West Virginia @ BYU10:30 PM ET · FINAL | 48.8 | 50.4 | +1.7 |
| Colorado State @ San Diego State10:30 PM ET · FINAL | 38.8 | 44.1 | +5.4OVER |
Saturday, Oct 4
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force @ Navy12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 49.0 | 52.5 | +3.5OVER |
| Kansas State @ Baylor12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 61.5 | 54.3 | -7.2UNDER |
| Wisconsin @ Michigan12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 41.5 | 45.3 | +3.8OVER |
| Boston College @ Pittsburgh12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.0 | 58.0 | +2.0 |
| Ohio @ Ball State12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 52.5 | +1.0 |
| Clemson @ North Carolina12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 47.5 | 49.5 | +2.0 |
| Army @ UAB12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 58.0 | 59.7 | +1.7 |
| Kentucky @ Georgia12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 49.5 | 49.9 | +0.4 |
| Iowa State @ Cincinnati12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 51.0 | -0.5 |
| Illinois @ Purdue12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 55.0 | 51.8 | -3.3UNDER |
| UTSA @ Temple1:00 PM ET · FINAL | 58.5 | 56.1 | -2.4 |
| Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech1:00 PM ET · FINAL | 50.5 | 51.4 | +0.9 |
| Campbell @ NC State2:00 PM ET · FINAL | 61.3 | 59.0 | -2.2 |
| Western Michigan @ Massachusetts2:30 PM ET · FINAL | 46.5 | 51.9 | +5.4OVER |
| Oklahoma State @ Arizona3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.0 | 55.8 | -0.2 |
| Miami (OH) @ Northern Illinois3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 39.0 | 43.3 | +4.3OVER |
| Eastern Michigan @ Buffalo3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 48.5 | 50.4 | +1.9 |
| Texas @ Florida3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 48.8 | 49.3 | +0.6 |
| Florida International @ UConn3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 54.9 | +0.4 |
| Oregon State @ App State3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 54.8 | 56.9 | +2.2 |
| Syracuse @ SMU3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 58.5 | 56.9 | -1.6 |
| Penn State @ UCLA3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 49.8 | 53.3 | +3.5OVER |
| Virginia @ Louisville3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 62.0 | 62.5 | +0.5 |
| James Madison @ Georgia State3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 53.8 | 57.1 | +3.4OVER |
| Boise State @ Notre Dame3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 59.0 | 60.8 | +1.8 |
| Vanderbilt @ Alabama3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 54.0 | 53.8 | -0.2 |
| Washington @ Maryland3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 53.0 | 51.8 | -1.2 |
| UL Monroe @ Northwestern3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 40.5 | 45.8 | +5.3OVER |
| Central Michigan @ Akron3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 45.0 | 46.3 | +1.3 |
| Kent State @ Oklahoma4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.5 | 57.2 | +3.7OVER |
| Texas State @ Arkansas State4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 64.5 | 58.1 | -6.4UNDER |
| Michigan State @ Nebraska4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.5 | 53.6 | +0.1 |
| Coastal Carolina @ Old Dominion6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 55.3 | 52.6 | -2.6 |
| Florida Atlantic @ Rice7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 53.6 | +1.1 |
| South Alabama @ Troy7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 47.0 | 53.5 | +6.5OVER |
| UNLV @ Wyoming7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.8 | 51.8 | -0.9 |
| Texas Tech @ Houston7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 50.3 | 47.1 | -3.1UNDER |
| Minnesota @ Ohio State7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 44.5 | 45.7 | +1.2 |
| Mississippi State @ Texas A&M7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 58.3 | 57.6 | -0.6 |
| Miami @ Florida State7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 53.5 | 55.7 | +2.2 |
| Kansas @ UCF7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 55.5 | 48.5 | -7.0UNDER |
| Colorado @ TCU7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 58.8 | 49.0 | -9.8UNDER |
| Tulsa @ Memphis8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.0 | 56.5 | +0.5 |
| Duke @ California10:30 PM ET · FINAL | 56.3 | 50.8 | -5.5UNDER |
| Nevada @ Fresno State10:30 PM ET · FINAL | 44.3 | 45.1 | +0.8 |
Model totals vs the openers. The badge needs 3 points of daylight; win and spread numbers ride along unbadged.