WK 5 · 2025OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET
Week 5 · 2025 season
The Board
Every game on the slate gets a win probability, a margin, and a total. Cyan rows cleared the 3-point bar against the opening total; those carry the only badge we sell. The rest of the board is the model showing its work.
53Games modeled
21Edges badged
32Passes
Matchups read Away @ Home. Open every game for the full model read: win probability, paired team ratings, and the grade once it goes final.
Thursday, Sep 25
OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Army @ East Carolina7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 50.3 | -2.2 |
Friday, Sep 26
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State @ Virginia7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 58.8 | +4.3OVER |
| TCU @ Arizona State9:00 PM ET · FINAL | 55.5 | 56.9 | +1.4 |
| Houston @ Oregon State10:30 PM ET · FINAL | 48.5 | 52.0 | +3.5OVER |
Saturday, Sep 27
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rutgers @ Minnesota12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 51.6 | +0.1 |
| Cincinnati @ Kansas12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 55.0 | 53.1 | -1.9 |
| South Alabama @ North Texas12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 63.3 | 59.9 | -3.4UNDER |
| USC @ Illinois12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 57.5 | 52.8 | -4.8UNDER |
| Notre Dame @ Arkansas12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 61.5 | 58.1 | -3.4UNDER |
| Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.8 | 52.4 | -1.3 |
| UCF @ Kansas State12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 49.0 | 50.4 | +1.4 |
| Louisville @ Pittsburgh12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.0 | 57.9 | +1.9 |
| Duke @ Syracuse12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 58.8 | 62.0 | +3.3OVER |
| Bowling Green @ Ohio12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 50.8 | 49.4 | -1.4 |
| Utah State @ Vanderbilt12:45 PM ET · FINAL | 59.5 | 58.0 | -1.4 |
| Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan1:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.3 | 55.5 | +1.3 |
| Georgia Southern @ James Madison1:30 PM ET · FINAL | 53.8 | 56.0 | +2.2 |
| Arkansas State @ UL Monroe3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.5 | 55.0 | -1.5 |
| UConn @ Buffalo3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 47.0 | -4.5UNDER |
| Auburn @ Texas A&M3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 49.0 | 49.9 | +0.9 |
| Utah @ West Virginia3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 50.0 | 53.3 | +3.3OVER |
| LSU @ Ole Miss3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 56.0 | 57.9 | +1.9 |
| Ohio State @ Washington3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 50.5 | 52.9 | +2.4 |
| California @ Boston College3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 51.8 | 51.2 | -0.6 |
| Indiana @ Iowa3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 49.3 | 45.7 | -3.6UNDER |
| San Diego State @ Northern Illinois3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 42.8 | 45.9 | +3.2OVER |
| Rice @ Navy3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 45.5 | 48.8 | +3.3OVER |
| UCLA @ Northwestern3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 45.8 | 47.5 | +1.8 |
| Akron @ Toledo3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 48.0 | 50.4 | +2.4 |
| Lindenwood @ Miami (OH)3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 49.3 | 50.0 | +0.7 |
| Baylor @ Oklahoma State3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 59.5 | 59.6 | +0.1 |
| Tulane @ Tulsa4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.3 | 53.3 | -1.0 |
| Hawai'i @ Air Force4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.8 | 59.2 | +5.5OVER |
| New Mexico State @ New Mexico4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 55.1 | +0.6 |
| Tennessee @ Mississippi State4:15 PM ET · FINAL | 62.5 | 58.1 | -4.4UNDER |
| Middle Tennessee @ Kennesaw State6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.8 | 55.7 | +3.9OVER |
| Liberty @ Old Dominion6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.8 | 55.2 | +3.4OVER |
| Rhode Island @ Western Michigan6:30 PM ET · FINAL | 43.5 | 48.6 | +5.1OVER |
| Western Kentucky @ Missouri State7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 60.0 | 55.3 | -4.7UNDER |
| Arizona @ Iowa State7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 49.5 | 51.5 | +2.0 |
| Jacksonville State @ Southern Miss7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 57.3 | 57.7 | +0.4 |
| Virginia Tech @ NC State7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 57.8 | 53.0 | -4.7UNDER |
| Memphis @ Florida Atlantic7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 61.5 | 57.6 | -3.9UNDER |
| Alabama @ Georgia7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 53.0 | 52.8 | -0.2 |
| App State @ Boise State7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 60.0 | 57.6 | -2.4 |
| Massachusetts @ Missouri7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 55.3 | 63.4 | +8.2OVER |
| San José State @ Stanford7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 49.5 | 50.1 | +0.6 |
| Oregon @ Penn State7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 51.6 | -0.9 |
| Washington State @ Colorado State7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 50.5 | 50.8 | +0.3 |
| Kentucky @ South Carolina7:45 PM ET · FINAL | 47.3 | 48.0 | +0.7 |
| Marshall @ Louisiana8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 46.5 | 50.3 | +3.8OVER |
| Louisiana Tech @ UTEP9:00 PM ET · FINAL | 48.5 | 46.9 | -1.6 |
| BYU @ Colorado10:15 PM ET · FINAL | 47.5 | 49.0 | +1.6 |
Model totals vs the openers. The badge needs 3 points of daylight; win and spread numbers ride along unbadged.