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WK 5 · 2025FINALOPENER CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET

Week 5 · 2025 season

Western Kentucky @ Missouri State

The UNDER 60.0 cashed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

SAT, SEP 27 · FINAL · PLASTER SPORTS COMPLEX
Western Kentucky9-464%
Missouri State7-636%
WKUNATL RANKMOST
0.1no rank
Overall rating
no rank-0.1
0.1no rank
Offense rating
no rank0.1
-0.0no rank
Defense rating
no rank-0.2
-0.8no rank
Pace
no rank-5.1
33%no rank
Returning PPA
no rankn/a
#9494th
Power rank
118th#118
#9696th
Recruiting rank
136th#136

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total60.0
Model total55.3
EDGE UNDER 60.0 · HIT

RATINGS AS OF: WKU wk 17 · MOST wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home)
-2.5
Open spread
+5.5
Close spread
+3.5
Close total
59.5

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

WKU27
FINALPlaster Sports Complex
MOST22
  • WinWestern KentuckyWIN HIT
  • ATSMissouri StateATS MISS
  • TotalsUNDER 59.5TOTAL HIT
  • EdgeUNDER 60.0EDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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