WK 3 · 2025OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET
Week 3 · 2025 season
The Board
Every game on the slate gets a win probability, a margin, and a total. Cyan rows cleared the 3-point bar against the opening total; those carry the only badge we sell. The rest of the board is the model showing its work.
70Games modeled
30Edges badged
40Passes
Matchups read Away @ Home. Open every game for the full model read: win probability, paired team ratings, and the grade once it goes final.
Thursday, Sep 11
OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| NC State @ Wake Forest7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 55.0 | 53.4 | -1.6 |
Friday, Sep 12
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana State @ Indiana6:30 PM ET · FINAL | 59.5 | 57.8 | -1.7 |
| Colgate @ Syracuse7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 66.5 | 62.3 | -4.2UNDER |
| Colorado @ Houston7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 43.5 | 42.0 | -1.5 |
| Kansas State @ Arizona9:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 52.8 | -1.7 |
| New Mexico @ UCLA10:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.8 | 54.6 | +1.9 |
Saturday, Sep 13
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Towson @ Maryland12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 50.5 | 52.2 | +1.7 |
| Clemson @ Georgia Tech12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 55.5 | 55.4 | -0.1 |
| Memphis @ Troy12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.0 | 50.8 | -0.2 |
| Oregon @ Northwestern12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 51.6 | +0.1 |
| William & Mary @ Virginia12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 50.6 | -0.9 |
| Samford @ Baylor12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 58.5 | 58.9 | +0.4 |
| Buffalo @ Kent State12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 48.8 | 52.4 | +3.7OVER |
| Central Michigan @ Michigan12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 42.0 | 46.4 | +4.4OVER |
| Wisconsin @ Alabama12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 46.8 | 49.7 | +3.0 |
| Oklahoma @ Temple12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 48.5 | -3.0UNDER |
| Houston Christian @ Nebraska12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 57.3 | +2.8 |
| South Alabama @ Auburn12:45 PM ET · FINAL | 53.5 | 54.5 | +0.9 |
| Louisiana @ Missouri1:00 PM ET · FINAL | 49.3 | 49.8 | +0.6 |
| New Hampshire @ Ball State2:00 PM ET · FINAL | 47.8 | 49.9 | +2.2 |
| UConn @ Delaware3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 50.6 | -0.9 |
| Youngstown State @ Michigan State3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 56.0 | +3.5OVER |
| USC @ Purdue3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 58.3 | 57.8 | -0.4 |
| Georgia @ Tennessee3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 50.5 | 49.8 | -0.7 |
| Pittsburgh @ West Virginia3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 57.8 | 54.0 | -3.8UNDER |
| Morgan State @ Toledo3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 54.9 | +2.4 |
| SMU @ Missouri State3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 61.5 | 55.1 | -6.4UNDER |
| Northwestern State @ Cincinnati3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 53.0 | 59.3 | +6.3OVER |
| Washington State @ North Texas3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 58.3 | 53.6 | -4.7UNDER |
| Incarnate Word @ UTSA3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 61.5 | 63.0 | +1.5 |
| Richmond @ North Carolina3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 46.5 | 49.0 | +2.5 |
| Villanova @ Penn State3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 55.5 | 58.9 | +3.4OVER |
| Oregon State @ Texas Tech3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 60.5 | 64.9 | +4.4OVER |
| Norfolk State @ Rutgers3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 51.5 | +0.0 |
| Iowa State @ Arkansas State4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 55.0 | 58.6 | +3.6OVER |
| UTEP @ Texas4:15 PM ET · FINAL | 51.0 | 51.9 | +0.8 |
| South Florida @ Miami4:30 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 57.5 | +3.0OVER |
| Liberty @ Bowling Green5:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 51.3 | -0.2 |
| Middle Tennessee @ Nevada5:00 PM ET · FINAL | 45.5 | 54.4 | +8.9OVER |
| Florida Atlantic @ Florida International6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 55.8 | 53.9 | -1.9 |
| Eastern Kentucky @ Marshall6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 50.5 | 51.9 | +1.4 |
| Monmouth @ Charlotte6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 67.5 | 57.6 | -9.9UNDER |
| Alcorn State @ Mississippi State6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 57.0 | +4.5OVER |
| Merrimack @ Kennesaw State6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 44.5 | 48.6 | +4.1OVER |
| Prairie View A&M @ Rice7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 48.5 | 50.8 | +2.3 |
| Jacksonville State @ Georgia Southern7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 55.5 | 56.0 | +0.5 |
| Ohio @ Ohio State7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.5 | 50.9 | -2.6 |
| Arkansas @ Ole Miss7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 62.0 | 57.7 | -4.3UNDER |
| Western Michigan @ Illinois7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 55.1 | +3.6OVER |
| Murray State @ Georgia State7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 63.5 | 58.6 | -4.9UNDER |
| App State @ Southern Miss7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 56.6 | +4.1OVER |
| Old Dominion @ Virginia Tech7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.0 | 52.1 | +1.1 |
| Texas A&M @ Notre Dame7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 49.5 | 54.7 | +5.2OVER |
| New Mexico State @ Louisiana Tech7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 42.5 | 47.1 | +4.6OVER |
| Florida @ LSU7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 49.2 | -5.3UNDER |
| Eastern Michigan @ Kentucky7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 47.5 | 53.7 | +6.2OVER |
| Massachusetts @ Iowa7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 44.5 | 42.1 | -2.4 |
| East Carolina @ Coastal Carolina7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 55.5 | 52.7 | -2.8 |
| Vanderbilt @ South Carolina7:45 PM ET · FINAL | 47.5 | 47.3 | -0.2 |
| Navy @ Tulsa8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.8 | 56.9 | +3.1OVER |
| Utah @ Wyoming8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 47.8 | 46.7 | -1.1 |
| Abilene Christian @ TCU8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.5 | 59.9 | +3.4OVER |
| Duke @ Tulane8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 52.4 | -0.1 |
| Akron @ UAB8:30 PM ET · FINAL | 53.0 | 59.3 | +6.3OVER |
| Air Force @ Utah State9:45 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 50.4 | -1.1 |
| Southern @ Fresno State10:00 PM ET · FINAL | 48.5 | 51.6 | +3.1OVER |
| Texas State @ Arizona State10:30 PM ET · FINAL | 59.0 | 61.9 | +2.9 |
| Minnesota @ California10:30 PM ET · FINAL | 43.8 | 45.6 | +1.8 |
| Boston College @ Stanford10:30 PM ET · FINAL | 44.0 | 46.2 | +2.2 |
| Portland State @ Hawai'i11:59 PM ET · FINAL | 53.0 | 59.1 | +6.1OVER |
Model totals vs the openers. The badge needs 3 points of daylight; win and spread numbers ride along unbadged.