WK 14 · 2025OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET
Week 14 · 2025 season
The Board
Every game on the slate gets a win probability, a margin, and a total. Cyan rows cleared the 3-point bar against the opening total; those carry the only badge we sell. The rest of the board is the model showing its work.
67Games modeled
18Edges badged
49Passes
Matchups read Away @ Home. Open every game for the full model read: win probability, paired team ratings, and the grade once it goes final.
Tuesday, Nov 25
OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bowling Green @ Massachusetts4:30 PM ET · FINAL | 45.0 | 47.0 | +2.0 |
| Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 46.0 | 49.3 | +3.3OVER |
Thursday, Nov 27
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Navy @ Memphis7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 58.5 | 56.7 | -1.8 |
Friday, Nov 28
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio @ Buffalo12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 47.5 | 49.3 | +1.8 |
| Ole Miss @ Mississippi State12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 61.5 | 58.4 | -3.1UNDER |
| Utah @ Kansas12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 59.5 | 57.8 | -1.7 |
| Iowa @ Nebraska12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 42.0 | 44.5 | +2.5 |
| Kent State @ Northern Illinois12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 44.8 | 47.3 | +2.6 |
| Air Force @ Colorado State3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 49.5 | 52.5 | +3.0OVER |
| San Diego State @ New Mexico3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 41.5 | 42.9 | +1.4 |
| Temple @ North Texas3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 65.5 | 62.5 | -3.0UNDER |
| Georgia @ Georgia Tech3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 56.5 | 56.4 | -0.1 |
| Boise State @ Utah State4:00 PM ET · FINAL | 55.5 | 54.8 | -0.7 |
| Indiana @ Purdue7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 53.5 | 54.9 | +1.4 |
| Texas A&M @ Texas7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 51.8 | +0.3 |
| Arizona @ Arizona State9:00 PM ET · FINAL | 49.3 | 50.2 | +0.9 |
Saturday, Nov 29
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo @ Central Michigan12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 44.5 | 45.7 | +1.2 |
| Ohio State @ Michigan12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 47.5 | 47.5 | +0.0 |
| Clemson @ South Carolina12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 50.0 | 53.1 | +3.1OVER |
| Iowa State @ Oklahoma State12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 49.5 | 50.9 | +1.4 |
| Colorado @ Kansas State12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 48.8 | -2.7 |
| Houston @ Baylor12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 61.0 | 57.1 | -3.9UNDER |
| Miami @ Pittsburgh12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 51.4 | -0.1 |
| East Carolina @ Florida Atlantic12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 67.0 | 64.5 | -2.5 |
| Ball State @ Miami (OH)12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 42.0 | 46.5 | +4.5OVER |
| Kentucky @ Louisville12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 47.5 | 50.3 | +2.8 |
| Texas Tech @ West Virginia12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.0 | 53.4 | +0.4 |
| UTEP @ Delaware1:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.8 | 56.9 | +2.1 |
| Florida International @ Sam Houston1:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 52.4 | +0.9 |
| UCF @ BYU1:00 PM ET · FINAL | 48.0 | 50.8 | +2.8 |
| Georgia Southern @ Marshall1:30 PM ET · FINAL | 61.3 | 57.8 | -3.5UNDER |
| Georgia State @ Old Dominion2:00 PM ET · FINAL | 59.0 | 57.3 | -1.7 |
| Western Kentucky @ Jacksonville State2:00 PM ET · FINAL | 55.0 | 53.6 | -1.4 |
| Louisiana Tech @ Missouri State2:00 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 50.0 | -1.5 |
| Arkansas State @ App State2:30 PM ET · FINAL | 56.5 | 55.2 | -1.3 |
| South Alabama @ Texas State3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 63.5 | 57.6 | -5.9UNDER |
| Middle Tennessee @ New Mexico State3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 56.6 | +2.1 |
| UL Monroe @ Louisiana3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 48.5 | 49.9 | +1.4 |
| Boston College @ Syracuse3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.3 | 57.0 | +3.7OVER |
| UAB @ Tulsa3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 60.0 | 58.1 | -1.9 |
| Penn State @ Rutgers3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 55.5 | 53.6 | -1.9 |
| Army @ UTSA3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 52.0 | 52.3 | +0.3 |
| Wisconsin @ Minnesota3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 38.0 | 42.0 | +4.0OVER |
| LSU @ Oklahoma3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 38.5 | 48.8 | +10.3OVER |
| Missouri @ Arkansas3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 58.0 | 57.6 | -0.4 |
| Oregon @ Washington3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 51.1 | -1.4 |
| Kennesaw State @ Liberty3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 56.0 | +1.4 |
| Troy @ Southern Miss3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 50.0 | 49.5 | -0.5 |
| Vanderbilt @ Tennessee3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 64.5 | 56.5 | -8.0UNDER |
| Wake Forest @ Duke3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 54.8 | 54.4 | -0.4 |
| Cincinnati @ TCU3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 58.3 | 51.4 | -6.8UNDER |
| James Madison @ Coastal Carolina3:45 PM ET · FINAL | 53.5 | 62.3 | +8.8OVER |
| Florida State @ Florida4:30 PM ET · FINAL | 51.0 | 51.0 | -0.0 |
| Oregon State @ Washington State6:30 PM ET · FINAL | 43.5 | 45.7 | +2.2 |
| Virginia Tech @ Virginia7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 49.6 | -2.9 |
| Maryland @ Michigan State7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 48.0 | 51.4 | +3.4OVER |
| Rice @ South Florida7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 59.5 | 61.4 | +1.9 |
| Alabama @ Auburn7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 50.0 | 52.4 | +2.4 |
| North Carolina @ NC State7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 50.5 | 50.5 | +0.1 |
| UCLA @ USC7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 61.0 | 52.7 | -8.3UNDER |
| Northwestern @ Illinois7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 47.5 | 49.8 | +2.3 |
| Charlotte @ Tulane7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 52.5 | 51.4 | -1.1 |
| SMU @ California8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.8 | 53.3 | -0.5 |
| UNLV @ Nevada9:00 PM ET · FINAL | 53.0 | 54.3 | +1.3 |
| Fresno State @ San José State10:30 PM ET · FINAL | 47.0 | 53.3 | +6.3OVER |
| Notre Dame @ Stanford10:30 PM ET · FINAL | 52.0 | 49.4 | -2.6 |
| Wyoming @ Hawai'i11:00 PM ET · FINAL | 44.5 | 47.3 | +2.8 |
Model totals vs the openers. The badge needs 3 points of daylight; win and spread numbers ride along unbadged.