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WK 14 · 2025FINALOPENER CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET

Week 14 · 2025 season

Ole Miss @ Mississippi State

The UNDER 61.5 cashed. The full grade is below.

The verdict

FRI, NOV 28 · FINAL · DAVIS WADE STADIUM
Ole Miss13-279%
Mississippi State5-821%
MISSNATL RANKMSST
0.5no rank
Overall rating
no rank0.2
0.4no rank
Offense rating
no rank0.2
0.1no rank
Defense rating
no rank-0.0
5.1no rank
Pace
no rank2.3
18%no rank
Returning PPA
no rank42%
#77th
Power rank
57th#57
#1616th
Recruiting rank
28th#28

Cell color follows national rank:top 4091st or worse.

Open total61.5
Model total58.4
EDGE UNDER 61.5 · HIT

RATINGS AS OF: MISS wk 17 · MSST wk 17 · RANKS PRINTED IN EVERY TINTED CELL

Model margin (home)
-21.0
Open spread
+9.5
Close spread
+7.5
Close total
62.5

Graded, all four markets

Every market grades against the close. The edge is the only one we badge as a pick; the other three ride along for calibration.

MISS38
FINALDavis Wade Stadium
MSST19
  • WinOle MissWIN HIT
  • ATSOle MissATS HIT
  • TotalsUNDER 62.5TOTAL HIT
  • EdgeUNDER 61.5EDGE HIT
Where these numbers come from

One model scores every FBS game: a win probability, a projected margin, and a projected total, built from as-of team ratings (offense, defense, pace, returning production, recruiting). Ratings on this page are snapshots from the week shown, with zero future information baked in.

The totals edge compares the model's total to the opening number. A gap of 3 or more points earns the badge, and it's the only pick on the card. Win and spread numbers are predictions we publish for the record, unbadged. The ATS lean stays tracked but unbadged: it has never beaten the closing line, even though the model beats the opener by about half a point of line value.

All four markets grade against the closing line once the game goes final. The full ledger lives on the track record.

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