WK 4 · 2025OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET
Week 4 · 2025 season
The Board
Every game on the slate gets a win probability, a margin, and a total. Cyan rows cleared the 3-point bar against the opening total; those carry the only badge we sell. The rest of the board is the model showing its work.
62Games modeled
22Edges badged
40Passes
Matchups read Away @ Home. Open every game for the full model read: win probability, paired team ratings, and the grade once it goes final.
Thursday, Sep 18
OPENERS CAPTURED WED 3:46 PM ET| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rice @ Charlotte7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 44.5 | 49.1 | +4.6OVER |
Friday, Sep 19
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa @ Rutgers8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 46.0 | 49.5 | +3.5OVER |
Saturday, Sep 20
| Game | Open | Model | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas @ Memphis12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 62.5 | 56.1 | -6.3UNDER |
| Syracuse @ Clemson12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.8 | 60.0 | +5.3OVER |
| Maryland @ Wisconsin12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 43.5 | 46.7 | +3.2OVER |
| SMU @ TCU12:00 PM ET · FINAL | 63.3 | 55.8 | -7.5UNDER |
| UAB @ Tennessee12:45 PM ET · FINAL | 67.8 | 63.9 | -3.8UNDER |
| Oregon State @ Oregon3:00 PM ET · FINAL | 56.5 | 61.0 | +4.5OVER |
| Tulane @ Ole Miss3:30 PM ET · FINAL | 61.0 | 57.9 | -3.1UNDER |
| Northern Illinois @ Mississippi State4:15 PM ET · FINAL | 49.3 | 52.5 | +3.2OVER |
| Temple @ Georgia Tech4:30 PM ET · FINAL | 53.5 | 57.1 | +3.6OVER |
| Arkansas State @ Kennesaw State6:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 57.9 | +3.4OVER |
| Marshall @ Middle Tennessee7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 46.8 | 51.8 | +5.1OVER |
| Murray State @ Jacksonville State7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 60.5 | 55.8 | -4.7UNDER |
| South Carolina @ Missouri7:00 PM ET · FINAL | 46.0 | 49.8 | +3.8OVER |
| Southern Miss @ Louisiana Tech7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 51.5 | 48.5 | -3.0UNDER |
| Georgia State @ Vanderbilt7:30 PM ET · FINAL | 53.3 | 59.3 | +6.0OVER |
| McNeese @ Utah State8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 61.5 | 56.2 | -5.3UNDER |
| Nicholls @ Texas State8:00 PM ET · FINAL | 54.5 | 58.9 | +4.4OVER |
| UL Monroe @ UTEP9:00 PM ET · FINAL | 47.0 | 51.5 | +4.5OVER |
| Wyoming @ Colorado10:15 PM ET · FINAL | 43.8 | 47.2 | +3.4OVER |
| Fresno State @ Hawai'i11:59 PM ET · FINAL | 47.5 | 52.7 | +5.2OVER |
Model totals vs the openers. The badge needs 3 points of daylight; win and spread numbers ride along unbadged.